KMSP / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Sep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

65%

59%

45%

30%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.6¢Risks 55.60u

HRESNO 44.4¢Risks 44.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.40u · HRES −44.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T02:42:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-26T03:11:46+00:00	73.8%	77.5%	79.9%	84.0%	93.0%
2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00	73.8%	77.5%	79.9%	84.0%	93.0%
2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00	73.8%	77.5%	79.9%	84.0%	61.5%
2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00	73.8%	77.5%	79.2%	84.0%	61.5%
2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00	73.8%	77.5%	79.2%	84.0%	61.5%
2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00	73.8%	77.5%	79.2%	84.0%	61.5%
2026-09-26T07:43:05+00:00	82.4%	77.5%	79.2%	77.0%	61.5%
2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00	82.4%	77.5%	79.2%	77.0%	61.5%
2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00	82.4%	77.5%	79.2%	77.0%	61.5%
2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00	82.4%	77.5%	79.2%	77.0%	61.5%
2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00	82.4%	77.5%	79.2%	77.0%	61.5%
2026-09-26T11:29:18+00:00	82.4%	88.5%	83.0%	77.0%	61.5%
2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00	82.4%	88.5%	83.0%	77.0%	61.5%
2026-09-26T12:59:36+00:00	82.4%	88.5%	83.0%	77.0%	61.5%
2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:00	84.9%	88.5%	83.0%	77.0%	61.5%
2026-09-26T14:32:11+00:00	84.9%	88.5%	83.0%	77.0%	61.5%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	84.9%	88.5%	83.0%	77.0%	61.5%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	84.9%	88.5%	83.0%	77.0%	61.5%
2026-09-26T16:47:43+00:00	84.9%	88.5%	83.0%	77.0%	64.1%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	84.9%	88.5%	83.0%	77.0%	64.1%
2026-09-26T18:18:00+00:00	84.9%	88.5%	83.0%	77.0%	64.1%
2026-09-26T19:03:08+00:00	84.9%	88.5%	83.0%	77.0%	64.1%
2026-09-26T19:48:19+00:00	62.7%	88.5%	83.0%	45.2%	64.1%
2026-09-26T20:33:27+00:00	62.7%	88.5%	83.0%	45.2%	64.1%
2026-09-26T21:18:33+00:00	62.7%	88.5%	83.0%	45.2%	64.1%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	62.7%	88.5%	83.0%	45.2%	64.1%
2026-09-26T22:48:47+00:00	62.7%	88.5%	83.0%	45.2%	64.1%
2026-09-26T23:33:57+00:00	62.7%	89.6%	70.8%	45.2%	64.1%
2026-09-27T00:19:03+00:00	62.7%	89.6%	70.8%	45.2%	64.1%
2026-09-27T01:04:12+00:00	62.7%	89.6%	70.8%	45.2%	64.1%
2026-09-27T01:49:26+00:00	67.9%	89.6%	70.8%	45.2%	64.1%
2026-09-27T02:34:32+00:00	67.9%	89.6%	70.8%	45.2%	64.1%
2026-09-27T14:40:09+00:00	65.9%	84.5%	64.8%	38.3%	33.6%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	65.9%	84.5%	64.8%	38.3%	33.6%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	65.9%	84.5%	64.8%	38.3%	33.6%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	65.9%	84.5%	64.8%	38.3%	45.0%
2026-09-27T17:40:48+00:00	65.9%	84.5%	55.0%	38.3%	45.0%
2026-09-27T18:26:00+00:00	65.9%	84.5%	55.0%	38.3%	45.0%
2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:00	65.9%	84.5%	55.0%	38.3%	45.0%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	74.8%	84.5%	55.0%	29.6%	45.0%
2026-09-27T20:41:28+00:00	74.8%	84.5%	55.0%	29.6%	45.0%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	74.8%	84.5%	55.0%	29.6%	45.0%
2026-09-27T22:11:37+00:00	74.8%	84.5%	55.0%	29.6%	45.0%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	74.8%	84.5%	55.0%	29.6%	45.0%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	74.8%	81.6%	59.0%	29.6%	45.0%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	74.8%	81.6%	59.0%	29.6%	45.0%
2026-09-28T01:12:05+00:00	74.8%	81.6%	59.0%	29.6%	45.0%
2026-09-28T01:57:12+00:00	65.1%	81.6%	59.0%	29.6%	45.0%
2026-09-28T02:42:18+00:00	65.1%	81.6%	59.0%	29.6%	45.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	82%	71.4°F	4.3°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	69.3°F	4.6°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	68.4°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	67.7°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
ICON	45%	66.9°F	4.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	64.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261001-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 26 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗