KMSP / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Sep 27 · 13:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

58%

55%

31%

26%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.0¢Risks 51.95u

ICONNO 48.0¢Risks 48.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +48.05u · ICON −48.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	20.9%	—	—	51.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	41.9%	—	—	20.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	71.1%	—	—	26.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	0.1%	23.8%	—	—	36.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	76.5%	1.4%	—	43.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	85.6%	66.3%	54.4%	—	49.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	97.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	87.8%	6.3%	44.7%	—	47.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	34.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	38.2%	96.6%	57.1%	—	49.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	40.9%	87.5%	29.3%	—	37.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	23.9%	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	16.7%	33.8%	21.4%	—	26.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	23.5%	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	24.4%	20.9%	19.0%	—	16.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	27.6%	19.0%	—	—	17.7%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	27.9%	32.1%	40.4%	—	20.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	21.9%	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	16.3%	31.2%	28.5%	—	17.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	20.5%	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	24.7%	57.6%	41.3%	—	19.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	25.8%	74.2%	41.0%	—	19.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	26.0%	55.8%	53.5%	10.0%	16.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	22.5%	45.2%	46.4%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	19.1%	19.1%	69.2%	45.0%	8.0%	18.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	15.0%	62.7%	25.9%	—	6.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	22.0%	51.3%	25.1%	1.7%	9.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	15.6%	63.7%	33.8%	—	11.8%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	13.8%	60.1%	29.3%	2.1%	10.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	9.2%	60.5%	19.2%	—	9.2%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	4.4%	46.8%	13.4%	2.9%	2.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	9.2%	33.9%	7.9%	—	4.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	71.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	69.4°F	4.6°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	69.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 02:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	67.7°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	66.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	65.4°F	4.8°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261001-TMAX-GE69
Opened Sep 27 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗