KMSP / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 02 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

87%

79%

51%

28%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 58.6¢Risks 58.60u

ICONNO 41.4¢Risks 41.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.40u · ICON −41.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	85.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	84.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	21.8%	—	—	65.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	36.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	95.1%	—	—	77.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	74.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	92.7%	—	—	82.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	56.7%	93.8%	—	—	89.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	96.0%	95.8%	50.7%	—	80.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	88.3%	98.6%	59.4%	—	72.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	76.6%	75.5%	84.5%	78.9%	—	66.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	78.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	48.4%	79.4%	86.9%	—	72.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	66.2%	71.4%	62.3%	87.1%	—	67.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	70.4%	41.5%	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	63.7%	43.0%	80.4%	70.1%	—	69.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	34.2%	70.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	40.9%	39.1%	69.5%	—	70.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	45.3%	46.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	46.1%	66.1%	59.6%	—	59.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	37.2%	75.9%	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	59.2%	76.5%	60.2%	34.9%	54.1%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	40.6%	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	42.4%	87.5%	42.4%	0.0%	50.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	32.6%	86.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	31.0%	87.3%	24.2%	30.0%	44.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	26.3%	80.1%	16.7%	—	37.0%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	27.6%	86.3%	15.9%	29.8%	36.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	23.8%	85.7%	11.5%	—	28.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	33.1%	89.3%	12.7%	25.1%	30.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	37.7%	90.2%	18.2%	—	41.7%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	48.5%	88.5%	37.2%	30.5%	41.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	53.0%	88.8%	28.5%	—	31.1%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	45.3%	90.4%	20.3%	43.7%	26.3%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	69.0%	89.3%	28.1%	—	40.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	65.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	64.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	79%	64.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	62.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	61.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	59.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261002-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 01 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗