KMSP / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 02 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

87%

79%

51%

28%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 58.6¢Risks 58.60u

ICONNO 41.4¢Risks 41.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.40u · ICON −41.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-01T03:11:28+00:00	69.3%	92.5%	73.2%	60.6%	27.5%
2026-10-01T03:57:04+00:00	69.3%	92.5%	73.2%	60.6%	27.5%
2026-10-01T04:42:09+00:00	69.3%	92.5%	73.2%	60.6%	27.5%
2026-10-01T05:27:14+00:00	69.3%	92.5%	66.3%	60.6%	27.5%
2026-10-01T06:12:19+00:00	69.3%	92.5%	66.3%	60.6%	27.5%
2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00	69.3%	92.5%	66.3%	60.6%	27.5%
2026-10-01T07:42:56+00:00	73.2%	92.5%	66.3%	52.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00	73.2%	92.5%	66.3%	52.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00	73.2%	92.5%	66.3%	52.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T09:58:55+00:00	73.2%	92.5%	66.3%	52.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T10:43:59+00:00	73.2%	92.5%	66.3%	52.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T11:29:12+00:00	73.2%	88.4%	70.0%	52.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T12:14:28+00:00	73.2%	88.4%	70.0%	52.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T12:59:34+00:00	73.2%	88.4%	70.0%	52.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T13:44:47+00:00	69.8%	88.4%	70.0%	52.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T14:32:58+00:00	69.9%	88.4%	69.9%	52.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T15:18:15+00:00	69.9%	89.1%	69.9%	52.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T16:03:42+00:00	69.9%	89.1%	69.9%	52.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T16:48:49+00:00	69.9%	89.1%	69.9%	52.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T17:33:58+00:00	69.9%	89.1%	64.7%	52.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T18:19:05+00:00	69.9%	89.1%	64.7%	52.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T19:04:09+00:00	69.9%	89.1%	64.7%	52.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T19:49:14+00:00	76.4%	89.1%	64.7%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T20:34:25+00:00	76.4%	89.1%	64.7%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T21:19:30+00:00	76.4%	89.1%	64.7%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T22:04:41+00:00	76.4%	89.1%	64.7%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T22:49:48+00:00	76.4%	89.1%	64.7%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-01T23:34:53+00:00	76.4%	89.7%	67.9%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-02T00:19:58+00:00	76.4%	89.7%	67.9%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-02T01:05:08+00:00	76.4%	89.7%	67.9%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-02T01:50:24+00:00	82.7%	89.7%	67.9%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-02T02:35:40+00:00	82.7%	89.7%	67.9%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-02T03:20:59+00:00	82.7%	89.7%	67.9%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-02T04:06:24+00:00	82.7%	89.7%	67.9%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-02T04:51:31+00:00	82.7%	89.7%	67.9%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-02T05:36:48+00:00	82.7%	89.7%	79.1%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-02T06:22:02+00:00	82.7%	89.7%	79.1%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-02T07:07:13+00:00	82.7%	89.7%	79.1%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-02T07:52:21+00:00	86.8%	89.7%	79.1%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-02T08:37:32+00:00	86.8%	89.7%	79.1%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-02T09:22:37+00:00	86.8%	89.7%	79.1%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00	86.8%	89.7%	79.1%	51.1%	27.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	65.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	64.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	79%	64.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	62.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	61.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	59.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261002-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 01 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗