KMSP / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Sep 29 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

46%

41%

36%

16%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.8¢Risks 35.75u

ICONNO 64.2¢Risks 64.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +64.25u · ICON −64.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	69.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	62.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	8.6%	—	—	42.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	84.7%	—	—	55.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	78.8%	—	—	60.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	43.3%	30.6%	80.6%	—	—	71.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	94.6%	85.1%	84.7%	24.6%	—	55.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	67.7%	92.9%	31.0%	—	44.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	46.9%	59.8%	51.5%	—	36.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	20.1%	50.8%	62.5%	—	42.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	13.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	39.3%	30.0%	61.5%	—	35.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	14.2%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	29.9%	14.6%	49.1%	36.3%	—	35.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	9.6%	35.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	12.4%	11.5%	33.9%	—	34.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	14.3%	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	14.2%	28.7%	23.2%	—	23.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	9.2%	38.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	21.2%	37.8%	21.9%	7.8%	17.6%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	9.6%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	9.9%	52.2%	9.9%	0.0%	13.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	5.7%	48.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	4.8%	48.8%	3.1%	4.5%	9.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	3.3%	35.9%	1.5%	—	6.2%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	3.3%	43.8%	1.2%	3.7%	5.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	2.2%	41.0%	0.6%	—	3.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	3.7%	46.0%	0.6%	2.2%	3.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	4.3%	45.8%	1.1%	—	5.4%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	6.8%	40.0%	3.7%	2.5%	4.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	7.5%	38.1%	1.8%	—	2.2%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	4.4%	39.1%	0.8%	4.1%	1.3%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	12.3%	33.9%	1.3%	—	2.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	56%	66.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-29 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	65.1°F	4.3°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	64.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	64.1°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
National Blend	30%	63.8°F	3.3°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
ICON	16%	61.6°F	3.9°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261002-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 26 · 14:32 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗