KMSP / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Sep 26 · 13:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

65%

60%

32%

30%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 49.9¢Risks 49.90u

HRESNO 50.1¢Risks 50.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +50.10u · HRES −50.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	4.8%	—	—	31.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	39.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	76.1%	—	—	42.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	68.2%	—	—	48.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	19.8%	70.0%	—	—	59.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	75.4%	74.8%	14.9%	—	41.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	53.6%	86.5%	19.4%	—	31.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	32.3%	44.7%	36.5%	—	23.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	10.8%	35.2%	46.8%	—	27.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	24.5%	17.3%	45.0%	—	21.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	6.7%	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	6.8%	32.2%	21.4%	—	20.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	3.9%	20.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	5.3%	4.8%	19.0%	—	19.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	6.1%	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	5.9%	14.7%	11.1%	—	11.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	3.4%	21.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	9.4%	20.4%	9.8%	2.6%	7.4%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	3.3%	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	3.3%	31.1%	3.3%	0.0%	5.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	1.6%	27.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	1.2%	27.0%	0.7%	1.1%	2.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.7%	16.7%	0.3%	—	1.6%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.7%	21.7%	0.2%	0.8%	1.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.4%	19.1%	0.1%	—	0.6%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.7%	22.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.8%	21.1%	0.1%	—	1.1%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.3%	16.3%	0.6%	0.4%	0.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.4%	14.4%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.6%	14.2%	0.1%	0.6%	0.1%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.3%	10.7%	0.1%	—	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	70%	71.1°F	6.9°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	69.6°F	5.3°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	68.9°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	68.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 02:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	66.0°F	6.6°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	32%	65.4°F	4.5°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	64.0°F	6.7°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261002-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 26 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗