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KMSP / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Sep 26 · 13:44 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
70%
AIFS
65%
EPS
60%
WN2
32%
HRES
30%
Consensus
50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 49.9¢Risks 49.90u
VS
HRESNO 50.1¢Risks 50.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +50.10u · HRES −50.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 61.3% · 2026-09-26T03:11:46+00:00AIFS Single: 61.3% · 2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00AIFS Single: 61.3% · 2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00AIFS Single: 61.3% · 2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00AIFS Single: 61.3% · 2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00AIFS Single: 61.3% · 2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-09-26T07:43:05+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-09-26T11:29:18+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-09-26T12:59:36+00:00AIFS Single: 65.3% · 2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.5% · 2026-09-26T03:11:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.5% · 2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.5% · 2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.5% · 2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.5% · 2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.5% · 2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.5% · 2026-09-26T07:43:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.5% · 2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.5% · 2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.5% · 2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.5% · 2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.5% · 2026-09-26T11:29:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.5% · 2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.5% · 2026-09-26T12:59:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.5% · 2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.5% · 2026-09-26T03:11:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.5% · 2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.5% · 2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.7% · 2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.7% · 2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.7% · 2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.7% · 2026-09-26T07:43:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.7% · 2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.7% · 2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.7% · 2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.7% · 2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.2% · 2026-09-26T11:29:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.2% · 2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.2% · 2026-09-26T12:59:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.2% · 2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-09-26T03:11:46+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00IFS HRES: 50.6% · 2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00IFS HRES: 29.9% · 2026-09-26T07:43:05+00:00IFS HRES: 29.9% · 2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00IFS HRES: 29.9% · 2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00IFS HRES: 29.9% · 2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00IFS HRES: 29.9% · 2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00IFS HRES: 29.9% · 2026-09-26T11:29:18+00:00IFS HRES: 29.9% · 2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00IFS HRES: 29.9% · 2026-09-26T12:59:36+00:00IFS HRES: 29.9% · 2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:00ICON: 79.0% · 2026-09-26T03:11:46+00:00ICON: 79.0% · 2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00ICON: 69.9% · 2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:00ICON: 69.9% · 2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:00ICON: 69.9% · 2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:00ICON: 69.9% · 2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:00ICON: 69.9% · 2026-09-26T07:43:05+00:00ICON: 69.9% · 2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00ICON: 69.9% · 2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00ICON: 69.9% · 2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00ICON: 69.9% · 2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:00ICON: 69.9% · 2026-09-26T11:29:18+00:00ICON: 69.9% · 2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00ICON: 69.9% · 2026-09-26T12:59:36+00:00ICON: 69.9% · 2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:0009-26 03:1109-26 08:2809-26 13:44
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-26T03:11:46+00:0061.3%69.5%47.5%50.6%79.0%
2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:0061.3%69.5%47.5%50.6%79.0%
2026-09-26T04:42:08+00:0061.3%69.5%47.5%50.6%69.9%
2026-09-26T05:27:19+00:0061.3%69.5%55.7%50.6%69.9%
2026-09-26T06:12:26+00:0061.3%69.5%55.7%50.6%69.9%
2026-09-26T06:57:31+00:0061.3%69.5%55.7%50.6%69.9%
2026-09-26T07:43:05+00:0050.7%69.5%55.7%29.9%69.9%
2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:0050.7%69.5%55.7%29.9%69.9%
2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:0050.7%69.5%55.7%29.9%69.9%
2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:0050.7%69.5%55.7%29.9%69.9%
2026-09-26T10:44:05+00:0050.7%69.5%55.7%29.9%69.9%
2026-09-26T11:29:18+00:0050.7%59.5%32.2%29.9%69.9%
2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:0050.7%59.5%32.2%29.9%69.9%
2026-09-26T12:59:36+00:0050.7%59.5%32.2%29.9%69.9%
2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:0065.3%59.5%32.2%29.9%69.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON70%71.1°F6.9°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending
AIFS Single65%69.6°F5.3°F2026-09-26 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble60%68.9°F5.8°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%68.0°F5.8°F2026-09-26 02:00Pending
National Blend41%66.0°F6.6°F2026-09-26 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 232%65.4°F4.5°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending
IFS HRES30%64.0°F6.7°F2026-09-26 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261002-TMAX-GE68
Opened Sep 26 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗