KMSP / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 01 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

88%

86%

75%

75%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 85.1¢Risks 85.15u

ICONNO 14.9¢Risks 14.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +14.85u · ICON −14.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T02:26:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-26T11:29:18+00:00	85.5%	72.6%	79.4%	56.2%	27.4%
2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00	85.5%	72.6%	79.4%	56.2%	27.4%
2026-09-26T12:59:36+00:00	85.5%	72.6%	79.4%	56.2%	27.4%
2026-09-26T13:44:45+00:00	89.2%	72.6%	79.4%	56.2%	27.4%
2026-09-26T14:32:11+00:00	89.2%	72.6%	79.4%	56.2%	27.4%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	89.2%	72.6%	79.4%	56.2%	27.4%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	89.2%	72.6%	79.4%	56.2%	27.4%
2026-09-26T16:47:43+00:00	89.2%	72.6%	79.4%	56.2%	71.6%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	89.2%	72.6%	79.4%	56.2%	71.6%
2026-09-26T18:18:00+00:00	89.2%	72.6%	79.4%	56.2%	71.6%
2026-09-26T19:03:08+00:00	89.2%	72.6%	79.4%	56.2%	71.6%
2026-09-26T19:48:19+00:00	89.9%	72.6%	79.4%	71.4%	71.6%
2026-09-26T20:33:27+00:00	89.9%	72.6%	79.4%	71.4%	71.6%
2026-09-26T21:18:33+00:00	89.9%	72.6%	79.4%	71.4%	71.6%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	89.9%	72.6%	79.4%	71.4%	71.6%
2026-09-26T22:48:47+00:00	89.9%	72.6%	79.4%	71.4%	71.6%
2026-09-26T23:33:57+00:00	89.9%	73.2%	83.3%	71.4%	71.6%
2026-09-27T00:19:03+00:00	89.9%	73.2%	83.3%	71.4%	71.6%
2026-09-27T01:04:12+00:00	89.9%	73.2%	83.3%	71.4%	71.6%
2026-09-27T01:49:26+00:00	88.2%	73.2%	83.3%	71.4%	71.6%
2026-09-27T02:34:32+00:00	88.2%	73.2%	83.3%	71.4%	71.6%
2026-09-27T03:19:50+00:00	88.2%	73.2%	83.3%	71.4%	71.6%
2026-09-27T04:05:14+00:00	88.2%	73.2%	83.3%	71.4%	71.6%
2026-09-27T04:50:20+00:00	88.2%	73.2%	83.3%	71.4%	83.8%
2026-09-27T05:35:29+00:00	88.2%	73.2%	88.7%	71.4%	83.8%
2026-09-27T06:20:39+00:00	88.2%	73.2%	88.7%	71.4%	83.8%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00	88.2%	73.2%	88.7%	71.4%	83.8%
2026-09-27T07:51:16+00:00	88.6%	73.2%	88.7%	72.7%	83.8%
2026-09-27T08:36:53+00:00	88.6%	73.2%	88.7%	72.7%	83.8%
2026-09-27T09:22:00+00:00	88.6%	73.2%	88.7%	72.7%	83.8%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	88.6%	73.2%	88.7%	72.7%	83.8%
2026-09-27T10:52:10+00:00	88.6%	73.2%	88.7%	72.7%	83.8%
2026-09-27T11:37:18+00:00	88.6%	75.3%	88.7%	72.7%	83.8%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	88.6%	75.3%	88.7%	72.7%	83.8%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	88.6%	75.3%	88.7%	72.7%	83.8%
2026-09-27T13:52:43+00:00	88.2%	75.3%	88.7%	72.7%	83.8%
2026-09-27T14:40:09+00:00	88.2%	75.3%	88.7%	72.7%	83.8%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	88.2%	75.3%	88.7%	72.7%	83.8%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	88.2%	75.3%	88.7%	72.7%	83.8%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	88.2%	75.3%	88.7%	72.7%	76.1%
2026-09-27T17:40:48+00:00	88.2%	75.3%	93.6%	72.7%	76.1%
2026-09-27T18:26:00+00:00	88.2%	75.3%	93.6%	72.7%	76.1%
2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:00	88.2%	75.3%	93.6%	72.7%	76.1%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	95.8%	75.3%	93.6%	76.5%	76.1%
2026-09-27T20:41:28+00:00	95.8%	75.3%	93.6%	76.5%	76.1%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	95.8%	75.3%	93.6%	76.5%	76.1%
2026-09-27T22:11:37+00:00	95.8%	75.3%	93.6%	76.5%	76.1%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	95.8%	75.3%	93.6%	76.5%	76.1%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	95.8%	70.7%	92.4%	76.5%	76.1%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	95.8%	70.7%	92.4%	76.5%	76.1%
2026-09-28T01:12:05+00:00	95.8%	70.7%	92.4%	76.5%	76.1%
2026-09-28T01:57:12+00:00	91.8%	70.7%	92.4%	76.5%	76.1%
2026-09-28T02:42:18+00:00	91.8%	70.7%	92.4%	76.5%	76.1%
2026-09-28T03:27:39+00:00	91.8%	70.7%	92.4%	76.5%	76.1%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	91.8%	70.7%	92.4%	76.5%	76.1%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	91.8%	70.7%	92.4%	76.5%	58.8%
2026-09-28T05:43:45+00:00	91.8%	70.7%	89.9%	76.5%	58.8%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	91.8%	70.7%	89.9%	76.5%	58.8%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	91.8%	70.7%	89.9%	76.5%	58.8%
2026-09-28T07:59:35+00:00	89.9%	70.7%	89.9%	81.9%	58.8%
2026-09-28T08:45:29+00:00	89.9%	70.7%	89.9%	81.9%	58.8%
2026-09-28T09:30:34+00:00	89.9%	70.7%	89.9%	81.9%	58.8%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	89.9%	70.7%	89.9%	81.9%	58.8%
2026-09-28T11:00:51+00:00	89.9%	70.7%	89.9%	81.9%	58.8%
2026-09-28T11:46:06+00:00	89.9%	83.5%	92.7%	81.9%	58.8%
2026-09-28T12:31:13+00:00	89.9%	83.5%	92.7%	81.9%	58.8%
2026-09-28T13:16:22+00:00	89.9%	83.5%	92.7%	81.9%	58.8%
2026-09-28T14:01:29+00:00	88.8%	83.5%	92.7%	81.9%	59.5%
2026-09-28T14:48:38+00:00	88.8%	83.5%	92.7%	81.9%	59.5%
2026-09-28T15:34:03+00:00	88.8%	83.5%	92.7%	81.9%	59.5%
2026-09-28T16:19:09+00:00	88.8%	83.5%	92.7%	81.9%	59.5%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00	88.8%	83.5%	92.7%	81.9%	61.5%
2026-09-28T17:49:23+00:00	88.8%	83.5%	92.7%	81.9%	61.5%
2026-09-28T18:34:29+00:00	88.8%	83.5%	92.7%	81.9%	61.5%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00	88.8%	83.5%	92.7%	81.9%	61.5%
2026-09-28T20:04:45+00:00	83.0%	83.5%	92.7%	78.1%	61.5%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00	83.0%	83.5%	92.7%	78.1%	61.5%
2026-09-28T21:34:55+00:00	83.0%	83.5%	92.7%	78.1%	61.5%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00	83.0%	83.5%	92.7%	78.1%	61.5%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00	83.0%	82.9%	92.7%	78.1%	61.5%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00	83.0%	82.9%	92.7%	78.1%	61.5%
2026-09-29T00:35:18+00:00	83.0%	82.9%	92.7%	78.1%	61.5%
2026-09-29T01:20:28+00:00	83.0%	82.9%	92.7%	78.1%	61.5%
2026-09-29T02:05:45+00:00	70.1%	82.9%	92.7%	78.1%	61.5%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00	70.1%	82.9%	92.7%	78.1%	61.5%
2026-09-29T03:36:07+00:00	70.1%	82.9%	92.7%	78.1%	61.5%
2026-09-30T04:30:46+00:00	74.1%	71.6%	87.3%	69.1%	30.4%
2026-09-30T05:16:20+00:00	74.1%	71.6%	89.7%	69.1%	30.4%
2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00	74.1%	71.6%	89.7%	69.1%	30.4%
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00	74.1%	71.6%	89.7%	69.1%	30.4%
2026-09-30T07:32:10+00:00	74.1%	71.6%	89.7%	69.1%	30.4%
2026-09-30T08:18:15+00:00	74.1%	71.6%	89.7%	83.0%	30.4%
2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00	74.1%	71.6%	89.7%	83.0%	30.4%
2026-09-30T09:48:42+00:00	74.1%	71.6%	89.7%	83.0%	30.4%
2026-09-30T10:34:51+00:00	86.0%	71.6%	89.7%	83.0%	30.4%
2026-09-30T11:20:02+00:00	86.0%	76.1%	94.8%	83.0%	30.4%
2026-09-30T12:05:14+00:00	86.0%	76.1%	94.8%	83.0%	30.4%
2026-09-30T12:50:20+00:00	86.0%	76.1%	94.8%	83.0%	30.4%
2026-09-30T13:35:30+00:00	92.0%	76.1%	94.8%	83.0%	30.4%
2026-09-30T14:23:09+00:00	91.6%	76.1%	94.7%	83.1%	30.4%
2026-09-30T15:08:15+00:00	91.6%	76.1%	94.7%	83.1%	30.4%
2026-09-30T15:53:31+00:00	91.6%	76.1%	94.7%	83.1%	30.4%
2026-09-30T16:38:49+00:00	91.6%	76.1%	94.7%	83.1%	74.8%
2026-09-30T17:23:57+00:00	91.6%	76.1%	96.0%	83.1%	74.8%
2026-09-30T18:09:05+00:00	91.6%	76.1%	96.0%	83.1%	74.8%
2026-09-30T18:54:14+00:00	91.6%	76.1%	96.0%	83.1%	74.8%
2026-09-30T19:39:20+00:00	92.6%	76.1%	96.0%	85.7%	74.8%
2026-09-30T20:24:33+00:00	92.6%	76.1%	96.0%	85.7%	74.8%
2026-09-30T21:09:39+00:00	92.6%	76.1%	96.0%	85.7%	74.8%
2026-09-30T21:54:45+00:00	92.6%	76.1%	96.0%	85.7%	74.8%
2026-09-30T22:39:51+00:00	92.6%	76.1%	96.0%	85.7%	74.8%
2026-09-30T23:24:56+00:00	92.6%	75.3%	95.5%	85.7%	74.8%
2026-10-01T00:10:20+00:00	92.6%	75.3%	95.5%	85.7%	74.8%
2026-10-01T00:55:50+00:00	92.6%	75.3%	95.5%	85.7%	74.8%
2026-10-01T01:40:56+00:00	87.9%	75.3%	95.5%	85.7%	74.8%
2026-10-01T02:26:04+00:00	87.9%	75.3%	95.5%	85.7%	74.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	69.8°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	68.6°F	4.3°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	68.3°F	4.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	66.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
ICON	75%	66.1°F	3.9°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-30 15:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	62.8°F	4.4°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261003-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 26 · 11:29 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗