KMSP / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 01 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

88%

86%

75%

75%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 85.1¢Risks 85.15u

ICONNO 14.9¢Risks 14.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +14.85u · ICON −14.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	98.5%	—	—	54.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	72.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	72.9%	—	—	59.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	30.7%	—	—	72.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	70.5%	—	—	62.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	4.7%	83.7%	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	61.1%	64.4%	37.6%	—	57.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	75.1%	46.4%	93.6%	—	58.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	63.5%	50.8%	89.3%	—	65.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	42.9%	32.3%	76.4%	—	64.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	45.0%	59.9%	30.0%	—	63.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	42.4%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	57.0%	9.7%	19.0%	—	49.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	16.6%	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	22.3%	—	60.9%	67.0%	47.2%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	8.8%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	27.1%	94.6%	86.4%	—	66.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	59.9%	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	70.6%	99.1%	83.7%	—	81.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	63.5%	65.5%	96.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	57.6%	96.0%	61.8%	0.0%	64.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	96.9%	0.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	0.2%	97.3%	77.6%	69.0%	74.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	66.4%	0.2%	97.7%	74.7%	—	65.3%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	56.2%	27.6%	97.4%	86.3%	38.9%	68.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	21.9%	97.4%	87.8%	—	31.4%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	56.7%	82.7%	97.8%	70.5%	28.4%	65.7%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	44.4%	90.8%	90.2%	79.9%	—	52.8%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	91.6%	93.7%	76.6%	90.5%	72.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	93.0%	92.0%	48.5%	—	63.3%
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	92.9%	92.9%	92.9%	89.8%	86.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	99.7%	99.8%	99.6%	—	98.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	69.8°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	68.6°F	4.3°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	68.3°F	4.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	66.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
ICON	75%	66.1°F	3.9°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-30 15:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	62.8°F	4.4°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261003-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 26 · 11:29 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗