KMSP / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Sep 26 · 10:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

81%

76%

50%

24%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.4¢Risks 55.35u

ICONNO 44.6¢Risks 44.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.65u · ICON −44.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	97.9%	—	—	48.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	67.6%	—	—	53.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	25.4%	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	64.6%	—	—	56.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	3.2%	79.2%	—	—	53.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	54.2%	57.7%	31.1%	—	50.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	69.0%	39.2%	91.0%	—	51.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	56.1%	43.2%	85.4%	—	58.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	35.2%	25.5%	69.8%	—	56.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	36.9%	51.7%	23.2%	—	55.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	34.2%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	48.2%	6.5%	13.6%	—	40.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	11.6%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	16.0%	—	51.8%	58.2%	38.2%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	5.6%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	19.7%	91.4%	80.3%	—	56.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	50.0%	93.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	61.2%	98.2%	76.5%	—	73.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	55.3%	94.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	46.7%	93.0%	51.1%	0.0%	54.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	94.3%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	58.1%	0.1%	94.9%	68.0%	58.1%	64.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	0.1%	95.5%	64.1%	—	53.6%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	43.8%	18.2%	94.8%	78.3%	27.6%	56.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	13.5%	94.7%	80.0%	—	20.9%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	72.7%	95.4%	58.0%	18.2%	52.7%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	83.6%	82.7%	68.8%	—	39.0%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	41.4%	84.6%	87.8%	64.2%	82.8%	58.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	86.4%	84.7%	33.8%	—	48.5%
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	85.8%	85.8%	85.8%	80.8%	76.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	99.0%	99.4%	98.7%	—	96.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	87%	70.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	69.4°F	5.6°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	76%	68.2°F	5.2°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	65.0°F	6.5°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	64.5°F	6.4°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	57.6°F	9.8°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261003-TMAX-GE65
Opened Sep 26 · 07:43 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 65°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗