KMSP / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 03 · 07:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

70%

65%

52%

44%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.2¢Risks 58.20u

ICONNO 41.8¢Risks 41.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.80u · ICON −41.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	97.0%	—	—	42.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	62.0%	—	—	47.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	20.6%	—	—	61.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	98.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	58.4%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	52.0%	2.2%	74.0%	—	—	46.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	47.2%	50.7%	25.2%	—	43.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	62.3%	32.3%	87.6%	—	44.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	48.5%	35.8%	80.5%	—	50.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	28.1%	19.5%	62.5%	—	48.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	29.3%	43.4%	17.3%	—	46.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	26.7%	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	39.6%	4.1%	9.4%	—	32.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	7.8%	26.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	11.0%	—	42.7%	49.1%	29.7%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	3.4%	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	13.6%	86.9%	72.9%	—	47.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	40.1%	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	51.0%	96.7%	67.9%	—	64.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	44.7%	90.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	36.1%	88.6%	40.3%	0.0%	43.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	90.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	0.0%	91.0%	57.0%	46.5%	53.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	0.0%	91.8%	52.4%	—	41.6%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	11.2%	90.5%	68.0%	18.2%	43.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	7.7%	90.2%	69.8%	—	12.8%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	30.7%	60.6%	91.1%	44.6%	10.7%	39.4%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	73.5%	72.4%	55.6%	—	26.5%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	74.4%	78.8%	50.0%	72.0%	44.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	76.4%	74.0%	21.3%	—	33.8%
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	75.0%	75.0%	75.0%	68.3%	62.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	97.2%	98.3%	96.6%	—	91.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	72%	67.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	67.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	67.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-03 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	65.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
ICON	44%	65.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261003-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 29 · 04:21 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗