KMSP / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 03 · 02:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

49%

46%

31%

24%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 41.0¢Risks 41.05u

ICONNO 59.0¢Risks 58.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +58.95u · ICON −58.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-01T15:18:15+00:00	59.5%	31.4%	68.3%	51.0%	35.9%
2026-10-01T16:03:42+00:00	59.5%	31.4%	68.3%	51.0%	35.9%
2026-10-01T16:48:49+00:00	59.5%	31.4%	68.3%	51.0%	35.9%
2026-10-01T17:33:58+00:00	59.5%	31.4%	65.3%	51.0%	35.9%
2026-10-01T18:19:05+00:00	59.5%	31.4%	65.3%	51.0%	35.9%
2026-10-01T19:04:09+00:00	59.5%	31.4%	65.3%	51.0%	35.9%
2026-10-01T19:49:14+00:00	65.0%	31.4%	65.3%	42.3%	35.9%
2026-10-01T20:34:25+00:00	65.0%	31.4%	65.3%	42.3%	35.9%
2026-10-01T21:19:30+00:00	65.0%	31.4%	65.3%	42.3%	35.9%
2026-10-01T22:04:41+00:00	65.0%	31.4%	65.3%	42.3%	35.9%
2026-10-01T22:49:48+00:00	65.0%	31.4%	65.3%	42.3%	35.9%
2026-10-01T23:34:53+00:00	65.0%	32.3%	68.3%	42.3%	35.9%
2026-10-02T00:19:58+00:00	65.0%	32.3%	68.3%	42.3%	35.9%
2026-10-02T01:05:08+00:00	65.0%	32.3%	68.3%	42.3%	35.9%
2026-10-02T01:50:24+00:00	62.3%	32.3%	68.3%	42.3%	35.9%
2026-10-02T02:35:40+00:00	62.3%	32.3%	68.3%	42.3%	35.9%
2026-10-02T15:29:53+00:00	50.0%	32.8%	60.8%	41.5%	35.9%
2026-10-02T16:15:01+00:00	50.0%	32.8%	60.8%	41.5%	35.9%
2026-10-02T17:00:12+00:00	50.0%	32.8%	47.3%	41.5%	23.9%
2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00	50.0%	32.8%	47.3%	41.5%	23.9%
2026-10-02T18:30:29+00:00	50.0%	32.8%	47.3%	41.5%	23.9%
2026-10-02T19:15:35+00:00	50.0%	32.8%	47.3%	41.5%	23.9%
2026-10-02T20:00:42+00:00	54.0%	32.8%	47.3%	41.5%	23.9%
2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00	54.0%	32.8%	47.3%	41.5%	23.9%
2026-10-02T21:30:58+00:00	54.0%	32.8%	47.3%	41.5%	23.9%
2026-10-02T22:16:32+00:00	54.0%	32.8%	47.3%	41.5%	23.9%
2026-10-02T23:01:45+00:00	54.0%	32.8%	47.3%	48.9%	23.9%
2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00	54.0%	30.8%	58.2%	48.9%	23.9%
2026-10-03T00:32:00+00:00	54.0%	30.8%	58.2%	48.9%	23.9%
2026-10-03T01:17:15+00:00	54.0%	30.8%	58.2%	48.9%	23.9%
2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00	46.0%	30.8%	58.2%	48.9%	23.9%
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00	46.0%	30.8%	58.2%	48.9%	23.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	58%	68.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-02 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	67.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	67.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	65.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	65.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261003-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 01 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗