KMSP / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 03 · 02:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

49%

46%

31%

24%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 41.0¢Risks 41.05u

ICONNO 59.0¢Risks 58.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +58.95u · ICON −58.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	94.4%	—	—	31.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	50.0%	—	—	35.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	12.8%	—	—	48.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	45.5%	—	—	37.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	38.7%	0.9%	62.0%	—	—	33.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	33.6%	36.9%	15.3%	—	29.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	47.8%	20.4%	78.5%	—	30.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	33.7%	22.8%	68.4%	—	35.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	16.4%	10.4%	46.8%	—	33.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	16.8%	27.9%	8.7%	—	30.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	14.7%	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	24.1%	1.5%	3.9%	—	18.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	3.1%	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	4.6%	—	25.9%	31.4%	16.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	1.1%	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	5.6%	73.7%	54.9%	—	28.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	22.6%	78.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	31.2%	90.6%	47.9%	—	43.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	25.3%	78.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	18.3%	74.5%	21.3%	0.0%	23.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	76.9%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	0.0%	77.6%	34.1%	25.1%	31.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	0.0%	78.4%	29.3%	—	20.8%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	3.3%	75.4%	43.8%	6.3%	21.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	1.9%	74.1%	44.9%	—	3.7%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	34.3%	74.9%	21.0%	2.8%	17.3%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	47.2%	45.8%	28.8%	—	9.2%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	47.1%	52.9%	23.4%	44.2%	19.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	48.5%	45.5%	6.0%	—	12.0%
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	45.3%	45.3%	45.3%	37.6%	31.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	85.9%	90.1%	84.0%	—	70.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	58%	68.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-02 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	67.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	67.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	31%	65.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	65.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261003-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 01 · 15:18 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗