KMSP / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 58°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Sep 27 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

97%

94%

65%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 81.4¢Risks 81.40u

ICONNO 18.6¢Risks 18.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +18.60u · ICON −18.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	—	—	—	64.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	33.5%	—	—	64.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	70.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	86.3%	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	77.5%	—	—	77.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	13.0%	—	—	79.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	92.4%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	48.6%	59.4%	—	—	82.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	33.6%	97.2%	81.1%	—	83.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	98.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	92.4%	80.6%	86.9%	82.5%	—	79.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	86.2%	73.0%	86.2%	81.6%	—	91.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	77.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	85.5%	87.3%	86.4%	86.9%	—	90.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	80.5%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	72.1%	—	72.1%	91.0%	83.8%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	92.8%	63.4%	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	90.6%	79.2%	95.0%	—	95.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	77.8%	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	89.4%	94.2%	94.2%	—	95.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	97.3%	91.9%	95.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	98.0%	87.4%	90.6%	97.3%	—	93.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	96.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	98.5%	95.8%	90.6%	94.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	99.5%	—	—	95.5%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	99.3%	98.3%	31.1%	96.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	99.4%	67.5%	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	99.4%	98.8%	—	94.3%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	98.6%	99.8%	99.3%	—	26.3%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	98.3%	97.2%	99.9%	99.4%	96.5%	96.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	98.9%	100.0%	99.5%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.5%	100.0%	99.3%	98.4%	99.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.8%	100.0%	99.7%	—	99.7%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	99.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.8%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	95.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	68.6°F	5.6°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	98%	66.8°F	4.8°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	97%	67.6°F	5.2°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	67.7°F	6.4°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	61.3°F	9.8°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	58.5°F	6.6°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 58°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261004-TMAX-GE58
Opened Sep 27 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 58°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗