KMSP / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Sep 27 · 13:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

92%

90%

57%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 77.5¢Risks 77.45u

ICONNO 22.6¢Risks 22.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +22.55u · ICON −22.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	—	—	—	56.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	23.6%	—	—	52.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	78.5%	—	—	55.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	67.0%	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	7.3%	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	35.5%	46.0%	—	—	72.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	87.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	21.9%	94.0%	70.2%	—	73.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	69.0%	77.4%	71.5%	—	67.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	76.1%	59.1%	76.1%	69.7%	—	83.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	77.0%	75.8%	76.4%	—	82.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	74.2%	56.6%	—	56.6%	82.2%	71.4%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	46.6%	48.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	81.0%	64.6%	88.7%	—	89.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	95.7%	62.4%	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	78.4%	86.7%	86.7%	—	89.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	92.6%	82.3%	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	74.5%	79.7%	92.5%	—	85.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	95.1%	88.7%	78.8%	85.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	98.0%	—	—	87.9%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	97.2%	94.1%	14.9%	89.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	97.3%	45.5%	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	97.3%	95.2%	—	84.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	93.0%	94.5%	99.0%	96.7%	—	10.8%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	93.3%	90.0%	99.1%	97.0%	88.2%	87.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	96.8%	95.1%	99.8%	97.4%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	97.0%	99.8%	96.3%	93.0%	96.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	98.7%	98.6%	99.7%	97.9%	—	97.9%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	99.2%	99.9%	99.1%	99.0%	98.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	98.9%	99.3%	99.9%	99.2%	—	98.2%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	99.7%	100.0%	99.6%	99.6%	99.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	81.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	70.5°F	5.6°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	66.4°F	4.4°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	66.4°F	4.9°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	90%	67.7°F	6.4°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
ICON	57%	61.3°F	9.8°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
National Blend	50%	59.5°F	5.5°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261004-TMAX-GE60
Opened Sep 27 · 11:37 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗