KMSP / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Oct 01 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

88%

74%

72%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 84.9¢Risks 84.90u

ICONNO 15.1¢Risks 15.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +15.10u · ICON −15.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	—	—	—	42.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	15.5%	—	—	41.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	47.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	68.7%	—	—	43.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	55.0%	—	—	55.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	3.8%	—	—	57.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	70.6%	23.8%	33.0%	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	78.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	13.0%	88.5%	57.0%	—	61.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	75.7%	55.1%	65.0%	58.0%	—	52.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	43.9%	62.7%	55.3%	—	71.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	63.3%	61.8%	62.5%	—	69.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	40.1%	—	40.1%	69.2%	55.8%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	30.3%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	67.0%	47.4%	77.9%	—	79.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	89.6%	44.6%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	91.4%	62.7%	74.1%	74.1%	—	78.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	67.4%	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	85.8%	56.8%	63.4%	82.9%	—	71.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	87.2%	75.7%	61.2%	70.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	93.5%	—	—	73.8%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	91.5%	84.5%	5.6%	75.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	91.3%	24.9%	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	91.0%	86.0%	—	65.9%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	80.9%	84.0%	95.7%	89.2%	—	3.3%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	80.9%	74.4%	95.7%	89.4%	71.3%	70.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	84.2%	98.9%	90.2%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	88.7%	98.4%	86.6%	79.0%	88.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	93.8%	93.3%	98.0%	90.8%	—	90.8%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	95.3%	99.0%	94.9%	94.5%	94.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	93.5%	95.6%	98.9%	94.8%	—	90.8%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	97.1%	99.7%	96.6%	96.9%	96.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	53.3%	99.7%	99.7%	98.7%	—	98.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	67.4°F	3.0°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	69.4°F	4.6°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	66.1°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	64.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
ICON	72%	64.3°F	4.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-30 15:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	60.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261004-TMAX-GE62
Opened Sep 28 · 03:27 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗