KMSP / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 03 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

91%

68%

63%

37%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 64.4¢Risks 64.40u

ICONNO 35.6¢Risks 35.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +35.60u · ICON −35.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	9.5%	—	—	30.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	57.2%	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	42.5%	—	—	42.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	1.8%	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	14.7%	21.8%	—	—	46.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	6.9%	80.1%	43.0%	—	47.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	40.6%	50.7%	43.4%	—	38.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	29.6%	47.7%	40.2%	—	57.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	47.6%	46.0%	46.8%	—	54.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	25.1%	—	25.1%	53.3%	39.3%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	17.3%	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	50.0%	30.7%	62.9%	—	64.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	79.1%	27.9%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	44.5%	57.3%	57.3%	—	62.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	49.0%	59.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	37.6%	44.2%	67.8%	—	52.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	73.2%	57.2%	40.8%	51.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	83.7%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	79.4%	67.9%	1.6%	55.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	78.6%	10.7%	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	77.6%	69.0%	—	43.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	65.3%	86.8%	73.7%	—	0.7%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	51.2%	86.3%	73.4%	47.5%	46.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	63.9%	95.1%	74.1%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	70.5%	93.0%	66.9%	55.4%	69.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	78.9%	91.3%	73.5%	—	73.5%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	82.8%	94.5%	81.8%	80.9%	79.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	82.8%	93.5%	80.8%	—	71.5%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	86.6%	97.1%	84.8%	85.8%	84.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	97.2%	97.2%	92.1%	—	91.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	67.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	68.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	65.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	64.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-03 02:00	Pending
ICON	37%	62.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261004-TMAX-GE64
Opened Sep 29 · 15:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗