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KMSP / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Sep 28 · 11:00 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
87%
HRES
86%
WN2
72%
AIFS
51%
ICON
22%
Consensus
70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 54.8¢Risks 54.75u
VS
ICONNO 45.2¢Risks 45.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.25u · ICON −45.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-09-28T07:59:35+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-09-28T08:45:29+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-09-28T09:30:34+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-09-28T11:00:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.0% · 2026-09-28T07:59:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.0% · 2026-09-28T08:45:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.0% · 2026-09-28T09:30:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.0% · 2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.0% · 2026-09-28T11:00:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.7% · 2026-09-28T07:59:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.7% · 2026-09-28T08:45:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.7% · 2026-09-28T09:30:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.7% · 2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.7% · 2026-09-28T11:00:51+00:00IFS HRES: 86.4% · 2026-09-28T07:59:35+00:00IFS HRES: 86.4% · 2026-09-28T08:45:29+00:00IFS HRES: 86.4% · 2026-09-28T09:30:34+00:00IFS HRES: 86.4% · 2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00IFS HRES: 86.4% · 2026-09-28T11:00:51+00:00ICON: 22.5% · 2026-09-28T07:59:35+00:00ICON: 22.5% · 2026-09-28T08:45:29+00:00ICON: 22.5% · 2026-09-28T09:30:34+00:00ICON: 22.5% · 2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00ICON: 22.5% · 2026-09-28T11:00:51+00:0009-28 07:5909-28 09:3009-28 11:00
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-28T11:00:51+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-28T07:59:35+00:0050.7%87.0%71.7%86.4%22.5%
2026-09-28T08:45:29+00:0050.7%87.0%71.7%86.4%22.5%
2026-09-28T09:30:34+00:0050.7%87.0%71.7%86.4%22.5%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:0050.7%87.0%71.7%86.4%22.5%
2026-09-28T11:00:51+00:0050.7%87.0%71.7%86.4%22.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble87%64.9°F5.7°F2026-09-27 00:00Pending
IFS HRES86%65.5°F6.4°F2026-09-28 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 272%61.5°F5.2°F2026-09-27 18:00Pending
National Blend55%59.4°F6.6°F2026-09-28 00:00Pending
AIFS Single51%58.6°F5.6°F2026-09-28 00:00Pending
ICON22%51.1°F9.8°F2026-09-28 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261005-TMAX-GE59
Opened Sep 28 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 59°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗