KMSP / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Sep 28 · 11:00 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

86%

72%

51%

22%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.8¢Risks 54.75u

ICONNO 45.2¢Risks 45.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.25u · ICON −45.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	—	—	—	68.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	20.6%	—	—	72.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	33.0%	—	—	78.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	90.7%	—	—	82.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	2.7%	57.4%	—	—	78.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	44.4%	72.0%	14.5%	—	86.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	84.4%	79.5%	46.4%	—	76.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	69.7%	—	74.9%	95.9%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	87.3%	25.5%	81.1%	61.8%	—	79.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	69.2%	63.9%	77.5%	—	87.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	49.1%	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	80.4%	75.2%	96.9%	—	86.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	95.7%	97.7%	95.0%	85.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	94.4%	96.0%	—	91.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	97.2%	98.6%	—	91.4%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	98.5%	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	98.6%	99.8%	99.6%	—	95.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	99.1%	99.4%	100.0%	21.4%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	98.9%	100.0%	98.9%	—	97.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	—	98.1%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.7%	100.0%	99.6%	99.4%	97.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.8%	100.0%	99.2%	—	0.4%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.7%	100.0%	98.3%	99.9%	98.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.1%	100.0%	98.8%	—	98.4%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	99.3%	100.0%	99.7%	100.0%	99.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	98.6%	99.6%	100.0%	99.9%	—	0.3%
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.7%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	98.7%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	87%	64.9°F	5.7°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	65.5°F	6.4°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	72%	61.5°F	5.2°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	59.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	58.6°F	5.6°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	51.1°F	9.8°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261005-TMAX-GE59
Opened Sep 28 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 59°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗