KMSP / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 01 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

95%

92%

74%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 86.1¢Risks 86.05u

ICONNO 13.9¢Risks 13.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +13.95u · ICON −13.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	—	—	—	70.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	89.4%	—	16.5%	—	—	67.6%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	27.5%	—	—	74.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	87.7%	—	—	77.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	1.8%	50.7%	—	—	72.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	37.6%	65.7%	10.9%	—	82.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	78.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	79.5%	74.0%	39.2%	—	70.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	62.7%	—	68.4%	94.0%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	53.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	19.5%	75.2%	54.0%	—	73.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	61.5%	55.8%	70.7%	—	82.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	93.3%	40.7%	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	89.9%	73.8%	67.8%	95.0%	—	81.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	93.0%	96.1%	92.1%	79.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	94.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	91.0%	93.5%	—	86.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	92.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	95.1%	97.4%	—	86.6%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	97.2%	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	97.2%	99.6%	99.2%	—	92.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	98.7%	99.9%	14.1%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	97.7%	99.9%	97.7%	—	94.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	99.7%	99.9%	99.6%	—	96.3%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	99.2%	99.9%	99.1%	98.6%	95.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	98.6%	99.4%	100.0%	98.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	99.2%	100.0%	96.3%	99.7%	96.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.5%	97.9%	100.0%	97.3%	—	96.3%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	98.2%	100.0%	99.1%	100.0%	98.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	96.6%	98.9%	100.0%	99.7%	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	99.1%	100.0%	99.8%	99.9%	98.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	96.6%	99.6%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	69.9°F	4.9°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	68.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	95%	66.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	67.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
ICON	74%	63.2°F	5.8°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-30 15:00	Pending
National Blend	51%	59.6°F	5.5°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261005-TMAX-GE60
Opened Sep 28 · 11:46 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗