KMSP / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 01 · 14:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

92%

91%

80%

62%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.0¢Risks 77.95u

ICONNO 22.1¢Risks 22.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.05u · ICON −22.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	10.1%	—	—	56.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	18.1%	—	—	63.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	53.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	79.8%	—	—	66.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	0.7%	37.4%	—	—	60.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	25.2%	52.1%	5.6%	—	71.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	67.7%	60.8%	26.0%	—	56.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	47.7%	—	53.8%	87.8%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	10.4%	61.0%	38.2%	—	58.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	90.6%	45.0%	39.3%	55.0%	—	70.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	85.8%	25.3%	56.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	57.8%	50.9%	88.7%	—	67.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	84.5%	90.2%	82.8%	63.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	87.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	80.3%	84.7%	—	73.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	82.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	87.2%	92.2%	—	72.4%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	92.8%	91.6%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	94.7%	91.5%	98.3%	96.9%	—	81.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	95.2%	99.2%	5.1%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	92.0%	99.2%	92.0%	—	84.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	96.3%	98.3%	99.2%	98.1%	—	88.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	96.3%	99.3%	96.0%	94.1%	85.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	96.8%	99.7%	92.8%	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	93.0%	96.0%	99.7%	86.6%	98.3%	85.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	90.8%	99.6%	88.9%	—	86.1%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	95.6%	91.6%	99.7%	94.9%	99.6%	92.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	93.5%	99.6%	97.8%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	94.3%	100.0%	98.0%	99.0%	90.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	84.0%	96.6%	99.4%	98.9%	—	96.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	67.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	67.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	91%	65.6°F	3.0°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	65.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
National Blend	69%	63.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
ICON	62%	63.2°F	5.8°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-01 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261005-TMAX-GE62
Opened Sep 29 · 04:21 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗