KMSP / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 03 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

87%

70%

57%

50%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.2¢Risks 71.15u

EPSNO 28.8¢Risks 28.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.85u · EPS −28.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	—	—	—	29.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	3.0%	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	6.1%	—	—	38.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	57.1%	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	0.1%	15.9%	—	—	34.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	8.5%	25.7%	1.1%	—	44.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	39.2%	32.3%	8.4%	—	28.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	20.5%	—	25.1%	65.6%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	2.0%	30.1%	13.6%	—	28.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	16.8%	13.4%	23.8%	—	37.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	6.4%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	24.8%	19.6%	62.9%	—	33.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	53.7%	64.4%	50.9%	28.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	45.1%	51.9%	—	36.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	54.1%	65.1%	—	33.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	62.5%	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	69.9%	60.8%	84.5%	77.8%	—	41.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	65.4%	70.4%	90.3%	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	65.9%	59.2%	89.0%	59.2%	—	44.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	81.7%	88.6%	80.9%	—	48.8%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	70.2%	88.2%	69.2%	62.3%	42.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	70.9%	92.3%	56.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	55.4%	65.7%	92.1%	40.7%	78.0%	39.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	47.2%	90.2%	43.1%	—	37.7%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	47.1%	91.1%	57.2%	89.2%	50.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	50.0%	88.0%	68.9%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	45.3%	50.0%	95.9%	68.3%	77.4%	39.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	25.4%	56.6%	79.7%	73.3%	—	54.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	69.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	70.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	67.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
ICON	57%	66.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-03 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	65.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	64.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261005-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 03 · 03:33 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗