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KMSP / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 03 · 14:09 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
92%
AIFS
87%
HRES
70%
ICON
57%
EPS
50%
Consensus
69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 71.2¢Risks 71.15u
VS
EPSNO 28.8¢Risks 28.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.85u · EPS −28.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-03T03:33:13+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-03T04:18:37+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-03T06:33:55+00:00AIFS Single: 86.6% · 2026-10-03T07:19:00+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-03T08:04:34+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-03T09:35:26+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-03T11:05:45+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-03T12:36:06+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-03T13:21:12+00:00AIFS Single: 87.2% · 2026-10-03T14:09:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.6% · 2026-10-03T03:33:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.6% · 2026-10-03T04:18:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.6% · 2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.6% · 2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.6% · 2026-10-03T06:33:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.6% · 2026-10-03T07:19:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.6% · 2026-10-03T08:04:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.6% · 2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.6% · 2026-10-03T09:35:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.6% · 2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-03T11:05:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-03T12:36:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-03T13:21:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-03T14:09:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-03T03:33:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-03T04:18:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.1% · 2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.1% · 2026-10-03T06:33:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.1% · 2026-10-03T07:19:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.1% · 2026-10-03T08:04:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.1% · 2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.1% · 2026-10-03T09:35:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.1% · 2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-03T11:05:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-03T12:36:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-03T13:21:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.3% · 2026-10-03T14:09:39+00:00IFS HRES: 60.5% · 2026-10-03T03:33:13+00:00IFS HRES: 60.5% · 2026-10-03T04:18:37+00:00IFS HRES: 60.5% · 2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00IFS HRES: 60.5% · 2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00IFS HRES: 60.5% · 2026-10-03T06:33:55+00:00IFS HRES: 60.5% · 2026-10-03T07:19:00+00:00IFS HRES: 69.6% · 2026-10-03T08:04:34+00:00IFS HRES: 69.6% · 2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00IFS HRES: 69.6% · 2026-10-03T09:35:26+00:00IFS HRES: 69.6% · 2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00IFS HRES: 69.6% · 2026-10-03T11:05:45+00:00IFS HRES: 69.6% · 2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00IFS HRES: 69.6% · 2026-10-03T12:36:06+00:00IFS HRES: 69.6% · 2026-10-03T13:21:12+00:00IFS HRES: 69.6% · 2026-10-03T14:09:39+00:00ICON: 39.9% · 2026-10-03T03:33:13+00:00ICON: 39.9% · 2026-10-03T04:18:37+00:00ICON: 39.9% · 2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00ICON: 39.9% · 2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00ICON: 39.9% · 2026-10-03T06:33:55+00:00ICON: 39.9% · 2026-10-03T07:19:00+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-03T08:04:34+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-03T09:35:26+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-03T11:05:45+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-03T12:36:06+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-03T13:21:12+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-03T14:09:39+00:0010-03 03:3310-03 08:5010-03 14:09
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-03T14:09:39+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-03T03:33:13+00:0086.6%52.6%80.0%60.5%39.9%
2026-10-03T04:18:37+00:0086.6%52.6%80.0%60.5%39.9%
2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:0086.6%52.6%80.0%60.5%39.9%
2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:0086.6%52.6%89.1%60.5%39.9%
2026-10-03T06:33:55+00:0086.6%52.6%89.1%60.5%39.9%
2026-10-03T07:19:00+00:0086.6%52.6%89.1%60.5%39.9%
2026-10-03T08:04:34+00:0089.5%52.6%89.1%69.6%56.7%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:0089.5%52.6%89.1%69.6%56.7%
2026-10-03T09:35:26+00:0089.5%52.6%89.1%69.6%56.7%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:0089.5%52.6%89.1%69.6%56.7%
2026-10-03T11:05:45+00:0089.5%50.0%92.3%69.6%56.7%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:0089.5%50.0%92.3%69.6%56.7%
2026-10-03T12:36:06+00:0089.5%50.0%92.3%69.6%56.7%
2026-10-03T13:21:12+00:0089.5%50.0%92.3%69.6%56.7%
2026-10-03T14:09:39+00:0087.2%50.0%92.3%69.6%56.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 292%69.9°F3.1°F2026-10-03 00:00Pending
AIFS Single87%70.2°F4.1°F2026-10-03 06:00Pending
IFS HRES70%67.6°F4.1°F2026-10-03 00:00Pending
ICON57%66.1°F3.5°F2026-10-03 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%66.0°F3.4°F2026-10-03 02:00Pending
IFS Ensemble50%65.5°F3.1°F2026-10-03 00:00Pending
National Blend32%64.0°F3.2°F2026-10-03 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261005-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 03 · 03:33 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗