KMSP / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 05 · 03:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

49%

40%

39%

28%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.1¢Risks 46.05u

ICONNO 53.9¢Risks 53.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.95u · ICON −53.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	1.4%	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	3.2%	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	44.2%	—	—	28.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.0%	9.0%	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	4.2%	15.8%	0.4%	—	31.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	26.0%	20.4%	4.1%	—	17.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	11.4%	—	14.6%	50.8%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	0.7%	17.9%	6.7%	—	16.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	9.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	52.5%	8.3%	6.3%	12.9%	—	23.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	2.5%	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	13.1%	9.7%	45.6%	—	19.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	24.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	35.6%	46.3%	33.0%	14.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	38.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	27.1%	33.0%	—	20.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	28.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	34.0%	44.9%	—	17.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	41.6%	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	39.2%	67.9%	58.7%	—	22.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	48.9%	76.9%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	36.3%	74.0%	36.3%	—	23.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	61.9%	72.7%	60.7%	—	26.3%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	43.8%	46.3%	71.3%	45.0%	37.7%	20.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	46.1%	78.1%	31.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	39.4%	77.0%	18.2%	54.0%	17.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	22.1%	72.4%	19.1%	—	15.6%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	21.2%	73.2%	29.3%	69.5%	23.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	22.4%	66.2%	39.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	21.4%	82.9%	37.6%	48.4%	14.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	25.4%	50.0%	41.8%	—	24.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	64%	69.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-04 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-04 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	67.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-04 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	66.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	65.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261005-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 04 · 04:28 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗