KMSP / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 05 · 03:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

49%

40%

39%

28%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.1¢Risks 46.05u

ICONNO 53.9¢Risks 53.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.95u · ICON −53.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-04T04:28:40+00:00	78.0%	24.1%	63.9%	35.7%	32.5%
2026-10-04T05:13:58+00:00	78.0%	24.1%	74.1%	35.7%	32.5%
2026-10-04T05:59:05+00:00	78.0%	24.1%	74.1%	35.7%	32.5%
2026-10-04T06:44:11+00:00	78.0%	24.1%	74.1%	35.7%	32.5%
2026-10-04T07:29:48+00:00	75.7%	24.1%	74.1%	40.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T08:15:44+00:00	75.7%	24.1%	74.1%	40.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	75.7%	24.1%	74.1%	40.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T09:45:59+00:00	75.7%	24.1%	74.1%	40.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T10:31:05+00:00	75.7%	24.1%	74.1%	40.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T11:16:19+00:00	75.7%	36.1%	68.5%	40.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T12:01:37+00:00	75.7%	36.1%	68.5%	40.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T12:47:07+00:00	75.7%	36.1%	68.5%	40.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T13:32:25+00:00	75.7%	36.1%	68.5%	40.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T14:21:29+00:00	69.9%	36.6%	68.4%	40.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T15:07:05+00:00	69.9%	36.6%	68.4%	40.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T15:52:33+00:00	69.9%	36.2%	68.4%	40.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T16:37:49+00:00	69.9%	36.2%	68.4%	40.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T17:23:04+00:00	69.9%	36.2%	56.8%	40.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00	69.9%	36.2%	56.8%	40.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T18:53:29+00:00	69.9%	36.2%	56.8%	40.5%	32.5%
2026-10-04T19:38:38+00:00	67.3%	36.2%	56.8%	39.4%	27.6%
2026-10-04T20:23:46+00:00	67.3%	36.2%	56.8%	39.4%	27.6%
2026-10-04T21:08:56+00:00	67.3%	36.2%	56.8%	39.4%	27.6%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00	67.3%	36.2%	56.8%	39.4%	27.6%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00	67.3%	36.2%	56.8%	39.4%	27.6%
2026-10-04T23:24:19+00:00	67.3%	39.8%	48.6%	39.4%	27.6%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00	67.3%	39.8%	48.6%	39.4%	27.6%
2026-10-05T00:54:38+00:00	67.3%	39.8%	48.6%	39.4%	27.6%
2026-10-05T01:39:45+00:00	64.5%	39.8%	48.6%	39.4%	27.6%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00	64.5%	39.8%	48.6%	39.4%	27.6%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00	64.5%	39.8%	48.6%	39.4%	27.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	64%	69.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-04 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-04 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	67.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-04 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	66.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	65.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261005-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 04 · 04:28 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗