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KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Sep 29 · 10:23 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
91%
AIFS
90%
HRES
88%
EPS
78%
ICON
35%
Consensus
83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 62.8¢Risks 62.80u
VS
ICONNO 37.2¢Risks 37.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.20u · ICON −37.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 90.2% · 2026-09-29T08:08:17+00:00AIFS Single: 90.2% · 2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00AIFS Single: 90.2% · 2026-09-29T09:38:38+00:00AIFS Single: 90.2% · 2026-09-29T10:23:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-09-29T08:08:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-09-29T09:38:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-09-29T10:23:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.7% · 2026-09-29T08:08:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.7% · 2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.7% · 2026-09-29T09:38:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.7% · 2026-09-29T10:23:43+00:00IFS HRES: 88.1% · 2026-09-29T08:08:17+00:00IFS HRES: 88.1% · 2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00IFS HRES: 88.1% · 2026-09-29T09:38:38+00:00IFS HRES: 88.1% · 2026-09-29T10:23:43+00:00ICON: 34.9% · 2026-09-29T08:08:17+00:00ICON: 34.9% · 2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00ICON: 34.9% · 2026-09-29T09:38:38+00:00ICON: 34.9% · 2026-09-29T10:23:43+00:0009-29 08:0809-29 09:3809-29 10:23
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-29T10:23:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-29T08:08:17+00:0090.2%77.9%90.7%88.1%34.9%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:0090.2%77.9%90.7%88.1%34.9%
2026-09-29T09:38:38+00:0090.2%77.9%90.7%88.1%34.9%
2026-09-29T10:23:43+00:0090.2%77.9%90.7%88.1%34.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 291%69.4°F5.2°F2026-09-28 18:00Pending
AIFS Single90%69.7°F5.6°F2026-09-29 00:00Pending
IFS HRES88%70.0°F6.3°F2026-09-29 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble78%66.0°F4.6°F2026-09-28 00:00Pending
National Blend56%63.4°F6.6°F2026-09-29 00:00Pending
ICON35%58.7°F9.8°F2026-09-29 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE63
Opened Sep 29 · 08:08 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 63°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗