KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Sep 29 · 10:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

90%

88%

78%

35%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.8¢Risks 62.80u

ICONNO 37.2¢Risks 37.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.20u · ICON −37.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	72.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	—	—	—	60.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	72.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	73.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	94.7%	—	—	76.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	73.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	85.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	51.3%	—	—	82.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	22.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	9.3%	91.5%	—	—	83.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	83.4%	4.2%	—	15.3%	80.6%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	69.0%	77.4%	67.7%	—	94.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	48.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	98.3%	71.1%	41.7%	95.6%	—	95.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	97.1%	80.5%	94.7%	97.1%	—	96.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	98.5%	96.1%	97.5%	97.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	98.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	99.0%	98.1%	—	98.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	99.5%	95.9%	—	97.8%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	96.2%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	97.6%	100.0%	98.7%	—	99.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.7%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.8%	100.0%	99.8%	—	99.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	24.7%	99.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	15.4%	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	28.9%	100.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	3.5%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	69.4°F	5.2°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	69.7°F	5.6°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	70.0°F	6.3°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	66.0°F	4.6°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	63.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	58.7°F	9.8°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE63
Opened Sep 29 · 08:08 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 63°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗