KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 01 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

79%

67%

66%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 82.4¢Risks 82.40u

EPSNO 17.6¢Risks 17.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.60u · EPS −17.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	—	—	—	44.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	—	—	—	56.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	57.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	87.6%	—	—	60.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	55.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	32.4%	—	—	67.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	3.4%	80.6%	—	—	68.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	1.2%	—	6.0%	63.1%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	97.2%	47.8%	58.0%	46.4%	—	84.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	94.0%	49.2%	21.6%	87.1%	—	87.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	90.3%	60.3%	84.6%	90.3%	—	87.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	93.9%	87.1%	91.0%	90.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	93.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	95.3%	92.0%	—	92.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	96.8%	85.1%	—	90.6%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	85.7%	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	89.3%	99.9%	93.2%	—	95.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	97.8%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	98.2%	99.9%	98.2%	—	98.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.2%	100.0%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.6%	99.9%	98.7%	6.6%	99.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.1%	100.0%	3.1%	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.0%	100.0%	98.4%	7.6%	99.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.8%	100.0%	98.3%	—	0.3%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	100.0%	99.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	76.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	74.6°F	5.3°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	70.9°F	6.6°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
ICON	67%	68.6°F	6.9°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	67.8°F	5.7°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-30 15:00	Pending
National Blend	50%	65.5°F	6.7°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 30 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗