KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 01 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

79%

67%

66%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 82.4¢Risks 82.40u

EPSNO 17.6¢Risks 17.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +17.60u · EPS −17.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T02:26:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-30T04:30:46+00:00	97.2%	56.3%	97.2%	43.7%	65.8%
2026-09-30T05:16:20+00:00	97.2%	56.3%	98.6%	43.7%	65.8%
2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00	97.2%	56.3%	98.6%	43.7%	65.8%
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00	97.2%	56.3%	98.6%	43.7%	65.8%
2026-09-30T07:32:10+00:00	97.2%	56.3%	98.6%	43.7%	65.8%
2026-09-30T08:18:15+00:00	97.2%	56.3%	98.6%	91.3%	65.8%
2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00	97.2%	56.3%	98.6%	91.3%	65.8%
2026-09-30T09:48:42+00:00	97.2%	56.3%	98.6%	91.3%	65.8%
2026-09-30T10:34:51+00:00	99.6%	56.3%	98.6%	91.3%	65.8%
2026-09-30T11:20:02+00:00	99.6%	66.3%	99.4%	91.3%	65.8%
2026-09-30T12:05:14+00:00	99.6%	66.3%	99.4%	91.3%	65.8%
2026-09-30T12:50:20+00:00	99.6%	66.3%	99.4%	91.3%	65.8%
2026-09-30T13:35:30+00:00	96.0%	66.3%	99.4%	91.3%	65.8%
2026-09-30T14:23:09+00:00	96.0%	66.3%	99.4%	91.3%	66.4%
2026-09-30T15:08:15+00:00	96.0%	66.3%	99.4%	91.3%	66.4%
2026-09-30T15:53:31+00:00	96.0%	66.3%	99.4%	91.3%	66.4%
2026-09-30T16:38:49+00:00	96.0%	66.3%	99.4%	91.3%	67.4%
2026-09-30T17:23:57+00:00	96.0%	66.3%	97.6%	91.3%	67.4%
2026-09-30T18:09:05+00:00	96.0%	66.3%	97.6%	91.3%	67.4%
2026-09-30T18:54:14+00:00	96.0%	66.3%	97.6%	91.3%	67.4%
2026-09-30T19:39:20+00:00	98.7%	66.3%	97.6%	79.3%	67.4%
2026-09-30T20:24:33+00:00	98.7%	66.3%	97.6%	79.3%	67.4%
2026-09-30T21:09:39+00:00	98.7%	66.3%	97.6%	79.3%	67.4%
2026-09-30T21:54:45+00:00	98.7%	66.3%	97.6%	79.3%	67.4%
2026-09-30T22:39:51+00:00	98.7%	66.3%	97.6%	79.3%	67.4%
2026-09-30T23:24:56+00:00	98.7%	65.6%	99.2%	79.3%	67.4%
2026-10-01T00:10:20+00:00	98.7%	65.6%	99.2%	79.3%	67.4%
2026-10-01T00:55:50+00:00	98.7%	65.6%	99.2%	79.3%	67.4%
2026-10-01T01:40:56+00:00	95.7%	65.6%	99.2%	79.3%	67.4%
2026-10-01T02:26:04+00:00	95.7%	65.6%	99.2%	79.3%	67.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	76.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	74.6°F	5.3°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	70.9°F	6.6°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
ICON	67%	68.6°F	6.9°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	67.8°F	5.7°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-30 15:00	Pending
National Blend	50%	65.5°F	6.7°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 30 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗