KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 03 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

81%

64%

56%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.8¢Risks 77.75u

ICONNO 22.2¢Risks 22.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.25u · ICON −22.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	—	—	—	28.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	29.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	65.4%	—	—	30.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	40.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	10.1%	—	—	36.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	50.7%	—	—	35.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	0.1%	—	0.8%	29.2%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	83.9%	16.5%	23.7%	15.6%	—	53.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	16.4%	4.1%	56.8%	—	57.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	23.0%	50.8%	61.8%	—	56.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	54.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	69.2%	53.3%	61.5%	60.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	71.6%	62.1%	—	63.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	52.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	—	75.6%	45.4%	—	56.4%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	75.4%	45.3%	92.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	51.0%	97.0%	60.6%	—	67.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	77.4%	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	78.8%	95.6%	78.8%	—	81.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	86.2%	98.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	93.0%	90.6%	94.7%	80.2%	0.2%	84.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	82.5%	98.0%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	92.8%	81.0%	99.3%	74.9%	0.2%	85.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	95.2%	91.8%	99.1%	72.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	97.2%	97.4%	99.6%	88.2%	99.9%	93.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	96.3%	98.5%	99.4%	91.3%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	98.6%	99.6%	93.5%	100.0%	91.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	99.3%	99.6%	97.7%	—	97.0%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	99.0%	99.7%	99.9%	99.7%	100.0%	98.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	98.0%	99.8%	100.0%	99.1%	—	97.3%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	99.9%	100.0%	98.7%	100.0%	99.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	85.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	78.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	79.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	74.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	71.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
ICON	56%	71.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-03 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 02 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗