KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 03 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

81%

64%

56%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.8¢Risks 77.75u

ICONNO 22.2¢Risks 22.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.25u · ICON −22.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T14:09:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-02T03:20:59+00:00	87.2%	56.6%	92.3%	71.6%	39.1%
2026-10-02T04:06:24+00:00	87.2%	56.6%	92.3%	71.6%	39.1%
2026-10-02T04:51:31+00:00	87.2%	56.6%	92.3%	71.6%	39.1%
2026-10-02T05:36:48+00:00	87.2%	56.6%	95.9%	71.6%	39.1%
2026-10-02T06:22:02+00:00	87.2%	56.6%	95.9%	71.6%	39.1%
2026-10-02T07:07:13+00:00	87.2%	56.6%	95.9%	71.6%	39.1%
2026-10-02T07:52:21+00:00	89.9%	56.6%	95.9%	71.6%	39.1%
2026-10-02T08:37:32+00:00	89.9%	56.6%	95.9%	71.6%	39.1%
2026-10-02T09:22:37+00:00	89.9%	56.6%	95.9%	71.6%	39.1%
2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00	89.9%	56.6%	95.9%	71.6%	39.1%
2026-10-02T10:53:28+00:00	89.9%	56.6%	95.9%	77.0%	39.1%
2026-10-02T11:39:25+00:00	89.9%	66.3%	98.4%	77.0%	39.1%
2026-10-02T12:25:22+00:00	89.9%	66.3%	98.4%	77.0%	39.1%
2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00	89.9%	66.3%	98.4%	77.0%	39.1%
2026-10-02T13:56:04+00:00	89.5%	66.3%	98.4%	77.0%	39.1%
2026-10-02T14:44:27+00:00	89.6%	66.3%	98.4%	77.0%	39.2%
2026-10-02T15:29:53+00:00	89.6%	65.1%	98.9%	77.0%	39.2%
2026-10-02T16:15:01+00:00	89.6%	65.1%	98.9%	77.0%	39.2%
2026-10-02T17:00:12+00:00	89.6%	65.1%	98.3%	77.0%	26.9%
2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00	89.6%	65.1%	98.3%	77.0%	26.9%
2026-10-02T18:30:29+00:00	89.6%	65.1%	98.3%	77.0%	26.9%
2026-10-02T19:15:35+00:00	89.6%	65.1%	98.3%	77.0%	26.9%
2026-10-02T20:00:42+00:00	92.1%	65.1%	98.3%	77.0%	26.9%
2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00	92.1%	65.1%	98.3%	77.0%	26.9%
2026-10-02T21:30:58+00:00	92.1%	65.1%	98.3%	77.0%	26.9%
2026-10-02T22:16:32+00:00	92.1%	65.1%	98.3%	77.0%	26.9%
2026-10-02T23:01:45+00:00	92.1%	65.1%	98.3%	72.5%	26.9%
2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00	92.1%	63.9%	98.7%	72.5%	26.9%
2026-10-03T00:32:00+00:00	92.1%	63.9%	98.7%	72.5%	26.9%
2026-10-03T01:17:15+00:00	92.1%	63.9%	98.7%	72.5%	26.9%
2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00	92.1%	63.9%	98.7%	72.5%	26.9%
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00	92.1%	63.9%	98.7%	72.5%	26.9%
2026-10-03T03:33:13+00:00	92.1%	63.9%	98.7%	72.5%	26.9%
2026-10-03T04:18:37+00:00	92.1%	63.9%	98.7%	72.5%	26.9%
2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00	92.1%	63.9%	98.7%	72.5%	26.9%
2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00	92.1%	63.9%	98.3%	72.5%	26.9%
2026-10-03T06:33:55+00:00	92.1%	63.9%	98.3%	72.5%	26.9%
2026-10-03T07:19:00+00:00	92.1%	63.9%	98.3%	72.5%	26.9%
2026-10-03T08:04:34+00:00	95.8%	63.9%	98.3%	80.7%	56.1%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00	95.8%	63.9%	98.3%	80.7%	56.1%
2026-10-03T09:35:26+00:00	95.8%	63.9%	98.3%	80.7%	56.1%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00	95.8%	63.9%	98.3%	80.7%	56.1%
2026-10-03T11:05:45+00:00	95.8%	64.5%	99.4%	80.7%	56.1%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00	95.8%	64.5%	99.4%	80.7%	56.1%
2026-10-03T12:36:06+00:00	95.8%	64.5%	99.4%	80.7%	56.1%
2026-10-03T13:21:12+00:00	95.8%	64.5%	99.4%	80.7%	56.1%
2026-10-03T14:09:39+00:00	98.0%	64.5%	99.4%	80.7%	56.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	78.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	79.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	74.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	71.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
ICON	56%	71.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-03 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 02 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗