KMSP / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 06 · 19:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

44%

38%

33%

27%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.1¢Risks 51.10u

EPSNO 48.9¢Risks 48.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.90u · EPS −48.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	25.2%	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.8%	—	—	6.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.0%	12.1%	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.0%	—	0.0%	3.8%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	1.2%	2.3%	1.1%	—	11.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	1.0%	0.1%	12.2%	—	12.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	1.6%	8.4%	13.6%	—	10.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	16.8%	8.3%	12.0%	11.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	16.7%	10.9%	—	11.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	17.8%	4.1%	—	7.3%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	3.8%	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	4.6%	56.8%	7.5%	—	10.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	15.8%	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	32.1%	15.7%	45.9%	15.7%	—	17.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	22.0%	60.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	27.3%	38.2%	14.3%	0.0%	18.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	14.8%	53.4%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	12.1%	65.9%	8.5%	0.0%	16.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	23.4%	59.5%	6.6%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	40.1%	66.9%	15.9%	80.1%	25.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	46.1%	60.2%	18.2%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	43.3%	63.2%	20.0%	84.3%	16.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	50.0%	59.7%	32.5%	—	28.8%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	41.4%	60.1%	72.0%	58.6%	90.5%	38.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.2%	60.5%	74.0%	38.1%	—	23.6%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	59.4%	75.0%	29.0%	84.8%	34.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	81.9%	75.9%	64.5%	—	75.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	98%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	79.6°F	3.0°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	78.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	77.1°F	2.5°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	76.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
ICON	33%	76.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	75.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 29 · 08:08 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗