KMSP / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Sep 30 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

95%

92%

83%

36%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 66.1¢Risks 66.15u

ICONNO 33.9¢Risks 33.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.85u · ICON −33.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	2.6%	—	—	60.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	—	—	—	78.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	67.6%	—	—	77.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	—	—	92.9%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	9.9%	82.4%	—	—	85.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	76.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	80.1%	56.3%	67.7%	26.3%	—	89.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	69.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	37.1%	62.9%	90.4%	—	92.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	69.1%	71.1%	81.6%	87.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	95.4%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	94.5%	72.6%	—	86.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	95.9%	83.2%	—	67.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	85.3%	88.1%	95.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	87.8%	87.8%	96.9%	65.4%	—	70.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	85.5%	67.4%	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	92.7%	71.0%	97.5%	50.9%	—	66.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	95.8%	79.7%	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	73.7%	96.2%	67.8%	—	84.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	76.6%	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	97.5%	76.5%	95.3%	90.1%	—	86.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	87.4%	93.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	98.1%	93.4%	97.4%	88.1%	4.7%	90.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	98.3%	95.8%	99.0%	26.7%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	96.5%	99.2%	98.2%	3.8%	94.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	96.5%	99.5%	98.6%	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	98.3%	99.6%	98.3%	96.0%	96.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	99.2%	98.9%	98.8%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	99.4%	98.4%	98.3%	97.0%	95.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.4%	98.8%	98.4%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.7%	99.6%	98.4%	89.8%	99.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	99.8%	99.9%	98.0%	—	99.2%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	98.2%	95.2%	99.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	99.9%	99.9%	99.6%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	75.7°F	5.5°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	95%	73.9°F	5.2°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	74.3°F	6.3°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	70.2°F	5.0°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	66.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
ICON	36%	61.9°F	9.8°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261007-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 30 · 08:18 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗