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KMSP / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Sep 30 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
97%
WN2
95%
HRES
92%
EPS
83%
ICON
36%
Consensus
89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 66.1¢Risks 66.15u
VS
ICONNO 33.9¢Risks 33.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.85u · ICON −33.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-09-30T08:18:15+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-09-30T09:48:42+00:00AIFS Single: 96.7% · 2026-09-30T10:34:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.9% · 2026-09-30T08:18:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.9% · 2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.9% · 2026-09-30T09:48:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.9% · 2026-09-30T10:34:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-09-30T08:18:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-09-30T09:48:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.6% · 2026-09-30T10:34:51+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-09-30T08:18:15+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-09-30T09:48:42+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-09-30T10:34:51+00:00ICON: 35.6% · 2026-09-30T08:18:15+00:00ICON: 35.6% · 2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00ICON: 35.6% · 2026-09-30T09:48:42+00:00ICON: 35.6% · 2026-09-30T10:34:51+00:0009-30 08:1809-30 09:4809-30 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-30T10:34:51+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-30T08:18:15+00:0094.9%82.9%94.6%91.7%35.6%
2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:0094.9%82.9%94.6%91.7%35.6%
2026-09-30T09:48:42+00:0094.9%82.9%94.6%91.7%35.6%
2026-09-30T10:34:51+00:0096.7%82.9%94.6%91.7%35.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single97%75.7°F5.5°F2026-09-30 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 295%73.9°F5.2°F2026-09-29 18:00Pending
IFS HRES92%74.3°F6.3°F2026-09-30 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble83%70.2°F5.0°F2026-09-29 00:00Pending
National Blend56%66.4°F6.6°F2026-09-30 00:00Pending
ICON36%61.9°F9.8°F2026-09-30 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261007-TMAX-GE66
Opened Sep 30 · 08:18 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗