KMSP / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 07 · 07:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

43%

32%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 33.5¢Risks 33.55u

ICONNO 66.5¢Risks 66.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.45u · ICON −66.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	13.6%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	9.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	10.1%	—	—	16.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	37.2%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	0.1%	17.6%	—	—	21.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	3.8%	6.9%	0.5%	—	24.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	0.9%	4.6%	23.7%	—	28.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	5.4%	6.0%	11.4%	17.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	—	27.4%	5.5%	—	13.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	28.6%	9.0%	—	3.1%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	11.9%	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	10.5%	29.1%	2.2%	—	2.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	2.1%	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	2.3%	28.2%	0.6%	—	1.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	3.8%	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	2.0%	18.3%	1.3%	—	4.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	2.1%	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	1.7%	12.3%	6.1%	—	4.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	3.8%	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	6.6%	14.3%	3.3%	0.0%	4.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	8.3%	21.4%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	8.1%	20.7%	13.4%	0.0%	5.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	6.6%	22.5%	13.2%	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	9.5%	21.7%	9.5%	4.6%	5.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	12.8%	10.3%	9.8%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	12.0%	6.1%	5.7%	3.5%	2.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	9.2%	5.8%	4.3%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	10.2%	9.5%	3.2%	0.3%	6.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.6%	9.2%	14.4%	1.7%	—	4.1%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	8.3%	10.2%	1.2%	0.4%	3.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.9%	7.9%	2.8%	—	13.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	58%	77.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	75.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	32%	75.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	71.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
ICON	9%	71.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	6%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-07 03:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	73.0°F	1.8°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261007-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 30 · 08:18 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗