KMSP / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

89%

83%

64%

47%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 71.5¢Risks 71.55u

ICONNO 28.4¢Risks 28.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +28.45u · ICON −28.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	70.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	9.5%	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	88.2%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	62.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	13.2%	—	—	65.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	80.7%	—	—	79.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	91.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	3.1%	3.5%	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	63.8%	38.2%	69.5%	80.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	97.3%	87.6%	—	69.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	—	83.5%	51.5%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	98.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	69.2%	95.0%	64.8%	—	54.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	79.9%	21.9%	83.2%	37.7%	—	62.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	80.5%	28.8%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	53.5%	88.7%	42.2%	—	62.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	56.3%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	50.0%	67.8%	43.6%	—	57.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	64.8%	59.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	64.3%	77.5%	41.3%	—	45.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	50.0%	78.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	36.9%	77.3%	25.9%	—	46.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	63.5%	62.5%	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	50.0%	58.7%	33.1%	52.2%	48.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	48.9%	68.5%	1.9%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	63.7%	71.0%	31.0%	—	45.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	54.8%	69.6%	32.5%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	56.2%	64.6%	75.4%	27.6%	55.0%	46.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	65.1%	74.1%	29.1%	—	46.1%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	50.0%	48.7%	21.0%	51.3%	39.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	55.6%	45.8%	18.2%	—	54.2%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	64.2%	65.5%	55.8%	22.2%	68.2%	66.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	45.5%	53.0%	20.2%	—	53.0%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	31.7%	62.4%	11.7%	62.4%	57.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	43.4%	67.6%	24.1%	—	61.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	71.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	89%	69.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	69.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
National Blend	76%	67.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	67.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending
ICON	47%	65.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261008-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 01 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗