KMSP / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 08 · 06:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

69%

62%

32%

18%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.5¢Risks 55.50u

ICONNO 44.5¢Risks 44.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.50u · ICON −44.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	5.5%	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	81.1%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	7.6%	—	—	53.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	80.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	70.5%	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	85.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	1.4%	1.6%	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	50.0%	25.7%	56.3%	68.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	94.1%	78.5%	—	55.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	72.4%	36.5%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	95.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	54.0%	89.2%	49.2%	—	39.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	76.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	66.2%	11.6%	70.7%	23.2%	—	45.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	16.2%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	36.3%	77.9%	26.2%	—	45.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	38.5%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	32.2%	50.0%	26.6%	—	39.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	46.2%	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	45.1%	60.6%	24.0%	—	27.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	30.8%	60.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	19.7%	59.2%	12.3%	—	27.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	41.6%	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	40.3%	29.2%	37.1%	16.2%	31.1%	28.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	34.6%	27.6%	46.6%	0.4%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	40.8%	48.8%	14.0%	—	24.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	31.4%	46.4%	14.5%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	40.1%	52.5%	11.2%	30.9%	23.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	39.8%	50.0%	11.5%	—	22.8%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	25.1%	24.0%	7.0%	26.2%	17.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.0%	28.8%	21.1%	5.4%	—	27.6%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	35.8%	37.2%	28.0%	6.8%	40.0%	38.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	19.2%	24.8%	5.6%	—	24.8%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	10.2%	31.7%	2.4%	31.7%	27.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	16.0%	35.5%	6.3%	—	29.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	72.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-07 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	69.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	68.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-07 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-08 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	65.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending
National Blend	21%	66.0°F	1.9°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	64.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-07 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261008-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 03 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗