KMSP / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 03 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

71%

67%

62%

52%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 66.8¢Risks 66.75u

EPSNO 33.2¢Risks 33.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +33.25u · EPS −33.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	4.0%	—	—	49.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	76.7%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	43.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	5.6%	—	—	47.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	64.6%	—	—	63.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	0.9%	1.0%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	43.0%	20.4%	49.3%	62.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	91.6%	72.8%	—	48.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	48.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	65.6%	29.6%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	93.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	46.0%	85.1%	41.3%	—	31.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	8.0%	63.1%	17.3%	—	37.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	11.5%	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	28.4%	70.9%	19.6%	—	37.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	30.2%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	24.4%	40.9%	19.6%	—	30.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	37.0%	31.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	40.4%	35.7%	51.0%	17.1%	—	19.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	22.6%	51.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.1%	13.4%	49.0%	7.8%	—	19.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	31.6%	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	20.6%	27.3%	10.4%	22.1%	19.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	19.0%	35.7%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	30.0%	37.4%	8.5%	—	16.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	21.6%	34.7%	8.7%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	21.7%	28.7%	40.1%	6.3%	20.8%	15.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	28.0%	37.3%	6.4%	—	14.3%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	15.7%	14.9%	3.5%	16.5%	10.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	18.2%	12.4%	2.5%	—	17.3%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	24.5%	17.2%	3.2%	26.8%	25.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	10.5%	14.4%	2.4%	—	14.4%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	4.8%	19.2%	0.9%	19.2%	16.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	7.9%	21.6%	2.6%	—	17.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	72.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	70.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	71.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	70.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-03 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	68.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	68.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-03 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261008-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 03 · 03:33 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗