WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KMSP / Thu Oct 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 05 · 04:41 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
12%
EPS
6%
HRES
4%
WN2
4%
ICON
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 6.9¢Risks 1.73u
VS
ICONNO 93.1¢Risks 23.28u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.28u · ICON −23.28u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.6% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.0% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.5% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.1% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.7% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.9% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.4% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.2% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.2% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.6% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.7% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.4% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.6% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.3% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 46.4% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.2% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.9% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 49.2% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.8% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.5% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.3% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.7% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.3% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 19.4% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.9% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.4% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 31.3% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 7.7% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.5% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.5% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.3% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.7% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.8% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.7% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.7% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0009-23 12:0010-01 06:0010-08 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:000.0%————5.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:0024.4%————7.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:0051.6%—————
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:0024.0%————5.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:0019.7%—————
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:0048.4%————10.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:0037.5%—————
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:0051.1%————9.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:0044.7%—————
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:0015.9%————12.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:004.4%—————
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:001.0%————8.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:0027.4%————4.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:002.3%—————
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:0014.4%————9.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:0028.3%—————
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:0012.4%————15.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:005.0%—————
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:008.3%—0.2%——11.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:0022.7%—————
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:008.8%———31.3%—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:0012.3%—8.2%———
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:005.6%—0.2%——9.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:0013.1%—28.2%———
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:009.3%—17.6%——16.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:0010.9%—32.7%———
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:0019.4%0.0%0.0%——16.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:0017.1%—19.4%———
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:0014.9%—5.6%1.3%7.7%13.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:0012.1%—8.3%———
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:0010.0%—46.4%19.4%—6.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:0011.2%—6.2%———
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:000.5%—12.9%1.9%——
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:002.3%—49.2%———
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:0010.0%4.5%28.8%3.4%—1.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:007.3%—13.5%———
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:007.1%0.1%9.0%0.4%—2.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:006.7%0.2%2.5%———
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:006.5%1.0%11.3%0.4%—1.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:002.9%1.0%5.7%———
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:002.8%0.5%1.9%0.3%—0.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:001.7%1.3%0.9%———
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:001.4%1.0%2.7%0.2%—0.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:001.0%0.3%2.4%———
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:000.6%0.1%1.8%0.0%—0.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:000.5%0.5%0.6%———
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:000.3%0.1%0.3%0.0%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.4%0.0%——
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%0.4%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.2%0.0%——
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.3%0.0%0.1%0.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.2%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single12%71.0°F4.6°F2026-10-04 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble6%70.3°F3.9°F2026-10-04 00:00Pending
IFS HRES4%68.0°F5.0°F2026-10-04 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%70.1°F3.7°F2026-10-04 12:00Pending
National Blend3%68.0°F4.4°F2026-10-04 06:00Pending
ICON2%66.9°F4.7°F2026-10-04 12:00Pending
NWS forecast2%68.0°F3.9°F2026-10-05 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261008-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 01 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Thu Oct 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗