KMSP / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Oct 06 · 14:43 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

96%

94%

94%

91%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 95.0¢Risks 23.74u

EPSNO 5.0¢Risks 1.26u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.26u · EPS −1.26u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	5.5%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	4.1%	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	—	—	—	79.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	77.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	93.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	96.2%	—	98.6%	77.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	81.5%	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	74.3%	11.5%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	34.3%	65.7%	79.0%	73.4%	—	47.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	92.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	75.5%	6.5%	42.4%	23.4%	—	44.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	80.5%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	77.6%	77.0%	44.4%	—	75.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	93.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	12.9%	88.0%	15.2%	—	70.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	50.9%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	68.6%	90.6%	62.1%	—	70.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	78.5%	29.4%	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	83.4%	81.0%	95.7%	84.5%	—	82.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	85.7%	95.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	91.0%	97.7%	92.5%	—	94.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	79.6%	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	92.2%	86.6%	—	95.8%	—	98.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	91.6%	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	95.8%	98.1%	99.8%	96.5%	98.6%	98.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	96.7%	99.9%	0.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	97.8%	99.2%	95.2%	100.0%	97.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	93.0%	96.9%	94.5%	—	97.7%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	95.4%	98.6%	96.5%	97.4%	99.9%	98.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	92.8%	96.5%	97.8%	96.8%	—	97.9%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.3%	93.0%	97.8%	98.3%	100.0%	98.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	96.0%	99.3%	98.6%	—	99.6%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	98.7%	99.4%	98.9%	100.0%	99.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	98.5%	99.8%	97.1%	—	98.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	99.3%	100.0%	99.6%	100.0%	99.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	85.9%	99.7%	100.0%	97.4%	—	99.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	73.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	73.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
ICON	94%	71.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	73.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	91%	71.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
National Blend	85%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-06 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261009-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 06 · 04:07 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗