KMSP / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 06 · 03:22 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

91%

87%

76%

60%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.8¢Risks 75.80u

EPSNO 24.2¢Risks 24.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.20u · EPS −24.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T03:22:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-02T10:53:28+00:00	55.7%	75.4%	65.6%	35.3%	—
2026-10-03T03:33:14+00:00	32.6%	63.9%	50.0%	97.9%	15.2%
2026-10-03T04:18:37+00:00	32.6%	63.9%	50.0%	97.9%	15.2%
2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00	32.6%	63.9%	50.0%	97.9%	15.2%
2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00	32.6%	63.9%	42.7%	97.9%	15.2%
2026-10-03T06:33:55+00:00	32.6%	63.9%	42.7%	97.9%	15.2%
2026-10-03T07:19:00+00:00	32.6%	63.9%	42.7%	97.9%	15.2%
2026-10-03T08:04:34+00:00	47.7%	63.9%	42.7%	61.3%	68.9%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00	47.7%	63.9%	42.7%	61.3%	68.9%
2026-10-03T09:35:26+00:00	47.7%	63.9%	42.7%	61.3%	68.9%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00	47.7%	63.9%	42.7%	61.3%	68.9%
2026-10-03T11:05:45+00:00	47.7%	43.0%	56.2%	61.3%	68.9%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00	47.7%	43.0%	56.2%	61.3%	68.9%
2026-10-03T12:36:06+00:00	47.7%	43.0%	56.2%	61.3%	68.9%
2026-10-03T13:21:12+00:00	47.7%	43.0%	56.2%	61.3%	68.9%
2026-10-03T14:09:39+00:00	78.6%	43.0%	56.2%	61.9%	68.9%
2026-10-04T15:52:34+00:00	53.2%	65.6%	77.1%	81.5%	76.0%
2026-10-04T16:37:49+00:00	53.2%	65.6%	77.1%	81.5%	76.0%
2026-10-04T17:23:04+00:00	53.2%	65.6%	44.1%	81.5%	76.0%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00	53.2%	65.6%	44.1%	81.5%	76.0%
2026-10-04T18:53:29+00:00	53.2%	65.6%	44.1%	81.5%	76.0%
2026-10-04T19:38:38+00:00	83.0%	65.6%	44.1%	82.9%	19.0%
2026-10-04T20:23:46+00:00	83.0%	65.6%	44.1%	82.9%	19.0%
2026-10-04T21:08:56+00:00	83.0%	65.6%	44.1%	82.9%	19.0%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00	83.0%	65.6%	44.1%	82.9%	19.0%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00	83.0%	65.6%	44.1%	82.9%	19.0%
2026-10-04T23:24:19+00:00	83.0%	67.9%	82.7%	82.9%	19.0%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00	83.0%	67.9%	82.7%	82.9%	19.0%
2026-10-05T00:54:38+00:00	83.0%	67.9%	82.7%	82.9%	19.0%
2026-10-05T01:39:45+00:00	72.9%	67.9%	82.7%	82.9%	19.0%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00	72.9%	67.9%	82.7%	82.9%	19.0%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00	72.9%	67.9%	82.7%	82.9%	19.0%
2026-10-05T03:55:32+00:00	72.9%	67.9%	82.7%	82.9%	19.0%
2026-10-05T04:41:08+00:00	72.9%	67.9%	82.7%	82.9%	19.0%
2026-10-05T05:26:22+00:00	72.9%	67.9%	82.7%	82.9%	19.0%
2026-10-05T06:11:29+00:00	72.9%	67.9%	82.7%	82.9%	19.0%
2026-10-05T06:56:34+00:00	72.9%	67.9%	82.7%	82.9%	19.0%
2026-10-05T07:42:24+00:00	55.2%	67.9%	82.7%	87.3%	63.2%
2026-10-05T08:28:17+00:00	55.2%	67.9%	82.7%	87.3%	63.2%
2026-10-05T09:13:31+00:00	55.2%	67.9%	82.7%	87.3%	63.2%
2026-10-05T09:58:37+00:00	55.2%	67.9%	82.7%	87.3%	63.2%
2026-10-05T10:43:43+00:00	55.2%	67.9%	82.7%	87.3%	63.2%
2026-10-05T11:28:56+00:00	55.2%	58.7%	82.2%	87.3%	63.2%
2026-10-05T12:14:17+00:00	55.2%	58.7%	82.2%	87.3%	63.2%
2026-10-05T12:59:30+00:00	55.2%	58.7%	82.2%	87.3%	63.2%
2026-10-05T13:44:49+00:00	85.6%	58.7%	82.2%	87.3%	63.2%
2026-10-05T14:34:14+00:00	85.6%	58.6%	82.0%	87.3%	64.0%
2026-10-05T15:19:23+00:00	85.6%	58.8%	82.0%	87.3%	64.0%
2026-10-05T16:04:44+00:00	85.6%	58.8%	82.0%	87.3%	64.0%
2026-10-05T16:50:29+00:00	85.6%	58.8%	82.0%	87.3%	64.0%
2026-10-05T17:35:36+00:00	85.6%	58.8%	90.7%	87.3%	64.0%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00	85.6%	58.8%	90.7%	87.3%	64.0%
2026-10-05T19:05:50+00:00	85.6%	58.8%	90.7%	87.3%	64.0%
2026-10-05T19:50:57+00:00	88.7%	58.8%	90.7%	87.3%	75.7%
2026-10-05T20:36:06+00:00	88.7%	58.8%	90.7%	87.3%	75.7%
2026-10-05T21:21:25+00:00	88.7%	58.8%	90.7%	87.3%	75.7%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00	88.7%	58.8%	90.7%	87.3%	75.7%
2026-10-05T22:51:37+00:00	88.7%	58.8%	90.7%	87.3%	75.7%
2026-10-05T23:36:44+00:00	88.7%	59.6%	92.0%	87.3%	75.7%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00	88.7%	59.6%	92.0%	87.3%	75.7%
2026-10-06T01:07:04+00:00	88.7%	59.6%	92.0%	87.3%	75.7%
2026-10-06T01:52:10+00:00	91.4%	59.6%	92.0%	87.3%	75.7%
2026-10-06T02:37:20+00:00	91.4%	59.6%	92.0%	87.3%	75.7%
2026-10-06T03:22:28+00:00	91.4%	59.6%	92.0%	87.3%	75.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	72.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	73.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-05 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	87%	73.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
ICON	76%	70.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	68.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-05 15:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261009-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 02 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗