KMSP / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 06 · 03:22 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

91%

87%

76%

60%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.8¢Risks 75.80u

EPSNO 24.2¢Risks 24.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.20u · EPS −24.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	55.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	3.0%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	2.1%	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	72.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	69.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	92.7%	—	96.9%	66.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	71.2%	—	—	50.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	61.8%	6.0%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	51.5%	67.0%	60.1%	—	33.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	2.9%	28.3%	13.4%	—	30.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	72.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	64.1%	63.3%	29.5%	—	61.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	6.1%	77.5%	7.4%	—	54.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	34.2%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	51.7%	81.0%	44.8%	—	53.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	16.1%	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	66.1%	89.4%	71.0%	—	68.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	72.4%	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	80.3%	93.5%	82.9%	—	86.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	62.8%	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	81.7%	72.4%	—	88.7%	—	94.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	85.0%	80.2%	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	93.8%	99.1%	89.6%	95.0%	94.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	89.8%	99.2%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	88.4%	92.4%	96.7%	86.0%	99.8%	92.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	80.9%	89.8%	84.0%	—	91.8%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	94.1%	88.2%	90.5%	99.5%	92.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	79.1%	87.8%	91.3%	88.5%	—	91.8%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	79.0%	91.1%	92.6%	99.8%	94.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	85.3%	96.3%	93.3%	—	97.7%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	93.2%	96.3%	94.1%	99.9%	96.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	92.0%	98.3%	87.2%	—	90.1%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	95.2%	99.5%	96.9%	100.0%	96.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	59.8%	97.2%	99.8%	86.9%	—	98.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	72.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	73.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-05 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	87%	73.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
ICON	76%	70.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-05 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	68.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-05 15:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261009-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 02 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗