KMSP / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 04 · 15:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

70%

69%

57%

45%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 60.9¢Risks 60.85u

AIFSNO 39.1¢Risks 39.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +39.15u · AIFS −39.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	2.2%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	1.5%	—	—	49.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	—	—	—	63.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	84.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	90.1%	—	95.5%	60.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	65.2%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	48.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	54.9%	4.2%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	44.2%	60.1%	52.9%	—	26.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	1.8%	22.2%	9.7%	—	23.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	56.4%	55.6%	23.0%	—	53.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	53.3%	3.9%	70.7%	4.9%	—	45.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	26.7%	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	43.0%	74.5%	36.3%	—	44.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	11.2%	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	57.3%	84.5%	62.7%	—	60.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	68.2%	63.9%	83.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	72.9%	89.8%	76.0%	—	81.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	53.0%	82.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	63.1%	—	83.0%	—	90.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	72.1%	86.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	81.7%	89.6%	98.3%	83.8%	91.5%	90.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	89.3%	83.9%	98.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	81.7%	87.3%	93.9%	78.5%	99.4%	87.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	71.7%	83.3%	75.6%	—	86.1%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	77.3%	89.4%	80.9%	84.1%	98.9%	87.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	80.0%	85.0%	80.9%	—	85.7%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	68.1%	84.3%	86.6%	99.4%	89.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	75.8%	92.4%	87.5%	—	95.0%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	80.9%	87.0%	92.2%	88.5%	99.6%	92.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	84.7%	95.9%	77.6%	—	81.9%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	66.8%	89.8%	98.5%	92.9%	99.8%	92.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	93.2%	99.4%	75.9%	—	96.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	77%	72.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
ICON	70%	71.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	69%	70.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	69.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-04 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	67.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-04 06:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	67.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-04 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261009-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 02 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗