KMSP / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 03 · 02:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

46%

34%

21%

11%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 53.3¢Risks 53.30u

ICONNO 46.7¢Risks 46.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.70u · ICON −46.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	44.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	1.5%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	1.0%	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	57.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	—	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	80.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	87.0%	—	93.8%	53.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	58.7%	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	47.9%	2.9%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	37.1%	52.9%	45.6%	—	21.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	1.1%	16.9%	6.8%	—	18.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	48.4%	47.6%	17.4%	—	45.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	2.5%	63.1%	3.1%	—	37.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	20.1%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	34.6%	67.0%	28.4%	—	36.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	7.5%	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	48.2%	78.4%	53.7%	—	50.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	54.7%	76.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	64.3%	84.7%	67.8%	—	73.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	43.0%	75.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	53.1%	—	75.7%	—	85.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	62.5%	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	83.8%	96.7%	76.2%	86.3%	85.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	76.0%	96.7%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	80.1%	89.5%	69.0%	98.7%	80.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	60.7%	74.7%	65.3%	—	78.4%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	82.6%	71.3%	75.4%	97.5%	79.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	69.8%	76.2%	70.9%	—	77.2%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	55.4%	74.9%	78.0%	98.4%	81.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	63.7%	86.1%	78.9%	—	90.2%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	69.5%	77.8%	85.4%	79.8%	99.0%	86.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	74.0%	91.4%	64.8%	—	70.2%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	80.8%	96.3%	85.8%	99.4%	85.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	85.9%	98.3%	61.4%	—	92.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	96%	80.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	70.0°F	7.6°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	69.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	67.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	65.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
ICON	11%	57.5°F	9.7°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261009-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 02 · 14:44 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 70°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗