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KMSP / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 03 · 02:47 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
96%
EPS
46%
WN2
34%
AIFS
21%
ICON
11%
Consensus
46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 53.3¢Risks 53.30u
VS
ICONNO 46.7¢Risks 46.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.70u · ICON −46.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-02T14:44:27+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-02T15:29:53+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-02T16:15:01+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-02T17:00:12+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-02T18:30:29+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-02T19:15:35+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-02T20:00:42+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-02T21:30:58+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-02T22:16:32+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-02T23:01:45+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-03T00:32:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-03T01:17:15+00:00AIFS Single: 20.9% · 2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00AIFS Single: 20.9% · 2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-02T14:44:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-02T15:29:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-02T16:15:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-02T17:00:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-02T18:30:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-02T19:15:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-02T20:00:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-02T21:30:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-02T22:16:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-02T23:01:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-03T00:32:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-03T01:17:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.5% · 2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.3% · 2026-10-02T14:44:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.2% · 2026-10-02T15:29:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.2% · 2026-10-02T16:15:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.7% · 2026-10-02T17:00:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.7% · 2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.7% · 2026-10-02T18:30:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.7% · 2026-10-02T19:15:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.7% · 2026-10-02T20:00:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.7% · 2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.7% · 2026-10-02T21:30:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.7% · 2026-10-02T22:16:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.7% · 2026-10-02T23:01:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.2% · 2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.2% · 2026-10-03T00:32:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.2% · 2026-10-03T01:17:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.2% · 2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.2% · 2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-02T14:44:27+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-02T15:29:53+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-02T16:15:01+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-02T17:00:12+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-02T18:30:29+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-02T19:15:35+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-02T20:00:42+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-02T21:30:58+00:00IFS HRES: 24.4% · 2026-10-02T22:16:32+00:00IFS HRES: 95.7% · 2026-10-02T23:01:45+00:00IFS HRES: 95.7% · 2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 95.7% · 2026-10-03T00:32:00+00:00IFS HRES: 95.7% · 2026-10-03T01:17:15+00:00IFS HRES: 95.7% · 2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00IFS HRES: 95.7% · 2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-02T17:00:12+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-02T18:30:29+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-02T19:15:35+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-02T20:00:42+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-02T21:30:58+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-02T22:16:32+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-02T23:01:45+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-03T00:32:00+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-03T01:17:15+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00ICON: 10.9% · 2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:0010-02 14:4410-02 20:4510-03 02:47
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-02T14:44:27+00:0062.7%48.2%33.3%24.4%—
2026-10-02T15:29:53+00:0062.7%48.2%34.2%24.4%—
2026-10-02T16:15:01+00:0062.7%48.2%34.2%24.4%—
2026-10-02T17:00:12+00:0062.7%48.2%59.7%24.4%10.9%
2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:0062.7%48.2%59.7%24.4%10.9%
2026-10-02T18:30:29+00:0062.7%48.2%59.7%24.4%10.9%
2026-10-02T19:15:35+00:0062.7%48.2%59.7%24.4%10.9%
2026-10-02T20:00:42+00:0010.7%48.2%59.7%24.4%10.9%
2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:0010.7%48.2%59.7%24.4%10.9%
2026-10-02T21:30:58+00:0010.7%48.2%59.7%24.4%10.9%
2026-10-02T22:16:32+00:0010.7%48.2%59.7%24.4%10.9%
2026-10-02T23:01:45+00:0010.7%48.2%59.7%95.7%10.9%
2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:0010.7%46.5%34.2%95.7%10.9%
2026-10-03T00:32:00+00:0010.7%46.5%34.2%95.7%10.9%
2026-10-03T01:17:15+00:0010.7%46.5%34.2%95.7%10.9%
2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:0020.9%46.5%34.2%95.7%10.9%
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:0020.9%46.5%34.2%95.7%10.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES96%80.4°F6.3°F2026-10-02 12:00Pending
National Blend53%70.0°F7.6°F2026-10-02 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble46%69.1°F4.5°F2026-10-02 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 234%67.5°F4.9°F2026-10-02 12:00Pending
AIFS Single21%65.0°F5.6°F2026-10-02 18:00Pending
ICON11%57.5°F9.7°F2026-10-02 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261009-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 02 · 14:44 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 70°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗