KMSP / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

84%

82%

62%

49%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 67.4¢Risks 67.40u

ICONNO 32.6¢Risks 32.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +32.60u · ICON −32.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	1.1%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	0.7%	—	—	37.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	55.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	73.7%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	83.2%	—	91.5%	47.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	52.0%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	40.9%	1.9%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	30.4%	45.6%	38.5%	—	16.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	0.7%	12.5%	4.6%	—	13.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	40.5%	39.7%	12.7%	—	37.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	1.5%	55.0%	1.9%	—	30.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	14.7%	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	26.9%	58.7%	21.4%	—	28.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	4.8%	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	39.1%	71.0%	44.5%	—	41.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	45.3%	69.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	54.9%	78.2%	58.7%	—	65.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	33.5%	66.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	42.8%	—	67.0%	—	78.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	52.1%	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	76.2%	94.1%	66.9%	79.4%	77.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	75.1%	66.4%	94.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	71.0%	83.2%	58.1%	97.3%	71.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	57.2%	48.8%	64.1%	53.6%	—	68.5%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	73.4%	59.9%	64.6%	95.1%	69.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	57.7%	65.1%	59.0%	—	66.3%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	42.0%	63.2%	66.9%	96.5%	71.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	50.0%	76.8%	67.5%	—	82.7%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	65.5%	75.5%	68.2%	97.5%	76.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	60.5%	83.8%	50.0%	—	56.0%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	68.3%	91.7%	75.0%	98.2%	75.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	74.6%	95.5%	45.1%	—	84.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	86%	75.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	74.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-06 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	73.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	71.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
ICON	49%	70.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-06 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261009-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 06 · 15:29 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗