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KMSP / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 07 · 03:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
86%
AIFS
84%
WN2
82%
EPS
62%
ICON
49%
Consensus
71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 67.4¢Risks 67.40u
VS
ICONNO 32.6¢Risks 32.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +32.60u · ICON −32.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-06T15:29:29+00:00AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:00AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:00AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:00AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00AIFS Single: 74.1% · 2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:00AIFS Single: 81.6% · 2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:00AIFS Single: 81.6% · 2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00AIFS Single: 81.6% · 2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:00AIFS Single: 81.6% · 2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00AIFS Single: 81.6% · 2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:00AIFS Single: 81.6% · 2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:00AIFS Single: 81.6% · 2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00AIFS Single: 81.6% · 2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:00AIFS Single: 84.0% · 2026-10-07T02:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 84.0% · 2026-10-07T02:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 84.0% · 2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.9% · 2026-10-06T15:29:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.9% · 2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.9% · 2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.9% · 2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.9% · 2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.9% · 2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.9% · 2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.9% · 2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.9% · 2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 60.9% · 2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.8% · 2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.8% · 2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.8% · 2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.8% · 2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.8% · 2026-10-07T02:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.8% · 2026-10-07T02:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.8% · 2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.9% · 2026-10-06T15:29:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.9% · 2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.9% · 2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.4% · 2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.4% · 2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.4% · 2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.4% · 2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.4% · 2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.4% · 2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.4% · 2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-07T02:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-07T02:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.2% · 2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00IFS HRES: 70.5% · 2026-10-06T15:29:29+00:00IFS HRES: 70.5% · 2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:00IFS HRES: 70.5% · 2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:00IFS HRES: 70.5% · 2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:00IFS HRES: 70.5% · 2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00IFS HRES: 70.5% · 2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-07T02:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-07T02:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 85.8% · 2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00ICON: 61.0% · 2026-10-06T15:29:29+00:00ICON: 61.0% · 2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:00ICON: 61.0% · 2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:00ICON: 61.0% · 2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:00ICON: 61.0% · 2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00ICON: 61.0% · 2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:00ICON: 49.0% · 2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:00ICON: 49.0% · 2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:00ICON: 49.0% · 2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:00ICON: 49.0% · 2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:00ICON: 49.0% · 2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:00ICON: 49.0% · 2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:00ICON: 49.0% · 2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:00ICON: 49.0% · 2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:00ICON: 49.0% · 2026-10-07T02:04:28+00:00ICON: 49.0% · 2026-10-07T02:49:37+00:00ICON: 49.0% · 2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:0010-06 15:2910-06 21:3210-07 03:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-06T15:29:29+00:0074.1%60.9%78.9%70.5%61.0%
2026-10-06T16:15:04+00:0074.1%60.9%78.9%70.5%61.0%
2026-10-06T17:00:14+00:0074.1%60.9%78.9%70.5%61.0%
2026-10-06T17:45:23+00:0074.1%60.9%74.4%70.5%61.0%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:0074.1%60.9%74.4%70.5%61.0%
2026-10-06T19:15:38+00:0074.1%60.9%74.4%70.5%61.0%
2026-10-06T20:01:29+00:0081.6%60.9%74.4%85.8%49.0%
2026-10-06T20:47:29+00:0081.6%60.9%74.4%85.8%49.0%
2026-10-06T21:32:39+00:0081.6%60.9%74.4%85.8%49.0%
2026-10-06T22:17:48+00:0081.6%60.9%74.4%85.8%49.0%
2026-10-06T23:03:05+00:0081.6%61.8%82.2%85.8%49.0%
2026-10-06T23:48:43+00:0081.6%61.8%82.2%85.8%49.0%
2026-10-07T00:33:50+00:0081.6%61.8%82.2%85.8%49.0%
2026-10-07T01:19:16+00:0081.6%61.8%82.2%85.8%49.0%
2026-10-07T02:04:28+00:0084.0%61.8%82.2%85.8%49.0%
2026-10-07T02:49:37+00:0084.0%61.8%82.2%85.8%49.0%
2026-10-07T03:34:44+00:0084.0%61.8%82.2%85.8%49.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES86%75.3°F4.5°F2026-10-06 12:00Pending
AIFS Single84%74.8°F4.3°F2026-10-06 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 282%73.6°F3.4°F2026-10-06 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble62%71.9°F4.7°F2026-10-06 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%71.0°F3.9°F2026-10-06 14:00Pending
ICON49%70.4°F3.9°F2026-10-06 12:00Pending
National Blend46%70.0°F4.4°F2026-10-06 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261009-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 06 · 15:29 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗