KMSP / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 09 · 07:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

36%

27%

25%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 28.0¢Risks 28.00u

ICONNO 72.0¢Risks 72.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +72.00u · ICON −72.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	21.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	0.2%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	18.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	62.2%	—	76.4%	23.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	26.5%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	17.5%	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	10.6%	19.9%	15.2%	—	4.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	0.1%	2.8%	0.7%	—	3.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	14.9%	14.5%	2.6%	—	13.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	0.1%	23.8%	0.2%	—	8.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	2.8%	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	6.8%	25.5%	4.7%	—	7.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	0.5%	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	11.5%	35.6%	14.4%	—	12.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	14.3%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	19.7%	42.3%	22.5%	—	27.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	7.6%	28.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	11.3%	—	27.6%	—	40.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	15.6%	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	35.1%	67.9%	25.5%	39.2%	37.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	24.0%	66.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	27.0%	41.9%	16.8%	77.6%	27.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	10.8%	19.9%	13.2%	—	23.4%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	26.6%	15.9%	19.1%	65.8%	22.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	13.5%	18.2%	14.3%	—	19.1%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	6.1%	15.7%	18.2%	68.1%	22.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	8.1%	25.3%	17.3%	—	32.5%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	14.6%	22.2%	16.3%	69.5%	23.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	10.5%	29.8%	6.5%	—	8.6%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	13.4%	42.1%	18.1%	69.7%	18.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	16.0%	51.6%	3.7%	—	25.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-09 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	74.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	73.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
National Blend	34%	73.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	72.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	72.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
ICON	5%	68.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261009-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 07 · 16:33 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗