KMSP / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 09 · 07:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

36%

27%

25%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 28.0¢Risks 28.00u

ICONNO 72.0¢Risks 72.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +72.00u · ICON −72.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T07:05:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-07T16:33:24+00:00	66.9%	33.9%	23.9%	60.6%	31.6%
2026-10-07T17:18:47+00:00	66.9%	33.9%	48.7%	60.6%	31.6%
2026-10-07T18:03:55+00:00	66.9%	33.9%	48.7%	60.6%	31.6%
2026-10-07T18:49:01+00:00	66.9%	33.9%	48.7%	60.6%	31.6%
2026-10-07T19:34:11+00:00	54.8%	33.9%	48.7%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-07T20:19:21+00:00	54.8%	33.9%	48.7%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-07T21:04:48+00:00	54.8%	33.9%	48.7%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-07T21:50:02+00:00	54.8%	33.9%	48.7%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-07T22:35:09+00:00	54.8%	33.9%	48.7%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-07T23:20:22+00:00	54.8%	38.4%	21.9%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-08T00:05:31+00:00	54.8%	38.4%	21.9%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-08T00:50:51+00:00	54.8%	38.4%	21.9%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-08T01:36:03+00:00	50.0%	38.4%	21.9%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-08T02:21:11+00:00	50.0%	38.4%	21.9%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-08T03:06:45+00:00	50.0%	38.4%	21.9%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-08T03:52:33+00:00	50.0%	38.4%	21.9%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-08T04:37:40+00:00	50.0%	38.4%	21.9%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-08T05:22:47+00:00	50.0%	38.4%	24.9%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-08T06:07:59+00:00	50.0%	38.4%	24.9%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-08T06:53:04+00:00	50.0%	38.4%	24.9%	45.1%	24.9%
2026-10-08T07:38:45+00:00	47.0%	38.4%	24.9%	39.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T08:24:45+00:00	47.0%	38.4%	24.9%	39.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	47.0%	38.4%	24.9%	39.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T09:54:58+00:00	47.0%	38.4%	24.9%	39.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T10:40:05+00:00	47.0%	38.4%	24.9%	39.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T11:25:24+00:00	47.0%	27.8%	20.6%	39.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T12:10:44+00:00	47.0%	27.8%	20.6%	39.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T12:55:51+00:00	47.0%	27.8%	20.6%	39.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T13:41:14+00:00	38.2%	27.8%	20.6%	39.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T14:30:27+00:00	38.2%	27.9%	20.6%	39.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T15:16:01+00:00	38.2%	27.8%	20.6%	39.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T16:01:34+00:00	38.2%	27.8%	20.6%	39.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T16:46:40+00:00	38.2%	27.8%	20.6%	39.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T17:31:46+00:00	38.2%	27.8%	20.6%	39.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T18:16:51+00:00	38.2%	27.8%	20.6%	39.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T19:01:56+00:00	38.2%	27.8%	20.6%	39.5%	18.2%
2026-10-08T19:47:04+00:00	47.0%	27.8%	20.6%	36.4%	5.0%
2026-10-08T20:32:14+00:00	47.0%	27.8%	20.6%	36.4%	5.0%
2026-10-08T21:17:26+00:00	47.0%	27.8%	20.6%	36.4%	5.0%
2026-10-08T22:02:32+00:00	47.0%	27.8%	20.6%	36.4%	5.0%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00	47.0%	27.8%	20.6%	36.4%	5.0%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00	47.0%	27.3%	13.7%	36.4%	5.0%
2026-10-09T00:17:57+00:00	47.0%	27.3%	13.7%	36.4%	5.0%
2026-10-09T01:03:09+00:00	47.0%	27.3%	13.7%	36.4%	5.0%
2026-10-09T01:48:22+00:00	51.0%	27.3%	13.7%	36.4%	5.0%
2026-10-09T02:33:35+00:00	51.0%	27.3%	13.7%	36.4%	5.0%
2026-10-09T03:19:12+00:00	51.0%	27.3%	13.7%	36.4%	5.0%
2026-10-09T04:05:08+00:00	51.0%	27.3%	13.7%	36.4%	5.0%
2026-10-09T04:50:14+00:00	51.0%	27.3%	13.7%	36.4%	5.0%
2026-10-09T05:35:21+00:00	51.0%	27.3%	24.7%	36.4%	5.0%
2026-10-09T06:20:28+00:00	51.0%	27.3%	24.7%	36.4%	5.0%
2026-10-09T07:05:34+00:00	51.0%	27.3%	24.7%	36.4%	5.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-09 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	74.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	73.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
National Blend	34%	73.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-09 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	72.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	72.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending
ICON	5%	68.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261009-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 07 · 16:33 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗