KMSP / Fri Oct 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Minneapolis, MNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST—Time unavailable

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	14.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	0.1%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	11.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	22.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	39.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	49.4%	—	65.2%	14.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	16.7%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	9.9%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	5.3%	11.3%	8.2%	—	1.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	0.0%	1.1%	0.2%	—	1.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	7.5%	7.2%	1.0%	—	6.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	0.0%	12.9%	0.0%	—	3.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	1.0%	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.7%	13.6%	1.7%	—	2.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.1%	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	4.8%	20.3%	6.3%	—	5.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	6.1%	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	9.0%	24.7%	10.7%	—	14.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	2.7%	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	4.2%	—	13.4%	—	22.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	6.2%	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	17.6%	46.7%	11.4%	20.6%	19.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	10.2%	44.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	11.6%	21.5%	6.1%	57.0%	11.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	3.3%	7.4%	4.3%	—	9.2%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	10.6%	5.2%	6.7%	41.3%	8.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	4.0%	6.0%	4.3%	—	6.4%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.3%	4.6%	5.7%	42.0%	7.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	1.8%	8.6%	5.0%	—	12.4%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	3.7%	6.8%	4.4%	41.4%	7.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.2%	9.9%	1.1%	—	1.7%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.9%	16.1%	4.4%	39.1%	4.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.4%	21.6%	0.4%	—	6.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMSP

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMSP-20261009-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 02 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Fri Oct 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗